Brazilian equities look uninvestable as the political shift toward socialism threatens to make an already poor inflation-adjusted long-term bet worse. The Brazil ETF's sharp decline after the political outcome illustrates the concern, though individual winners remain possible. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Brazilian equities remain a strong opportunity against other global emerging markets because fiscal easing, rate cuts and Brazil's critical-minerals edge survive election results. Brazil is down only 6% for the month after an earlier rally and remains near its four-month range. Lula's terms have been net positive for EWZ; this is a bet on Brazil's outlook, not on who wins the presidency. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Political fear after Lula election wins is a buying opportunity in Brazilian stocks, including EWZ, MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings. In USD, the table shows 12-month gains of 115% after 2002, 76% after 2006 and 18.5% after 2022, though shorter-term returns varied. x.com 

Socialist politics are a poor backdrop for Brazilian equities. A 23% drop in EWZ is not a compelling long case when it merely returns prices to where they stood before the first election. x.com 

Brazilian equities are early in a reversal that has only just started. Emerging markets are running in an opposite cycle to the US market and have begun to turn, and Brazil looks the strongest of them and serves as a safe haven. x.com 

Excellent management makes dLocal, MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings three great companies to pick up at a discount after the Lula-election selloff. Their Brazil exposure sent them down 9%, 9% and 22% on claims that the investment climate had worsened, a claim worth questioning. x.com 

Nu Holdings' sustained growth makes election-driven pessimism look overdone. Quarterly revenue before credit-loss provisions grew at a 45.1% annualized rate from Q1 2023 to Q2 2026 under Lula. This Brazilian shock looks like the tariff scare, when markets quickly shrugged off initial pessimism. FedexSTi notes that Nu reached 139 million customers and $1 billion in quarterly net income after enduring Brazil's 2014-16 recession, Dilma's impeachment and the pandemic. x.com  x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings have massive runways and have thrived across political backdrops, so they do not need tax cuts or deregulation to keep winning. Both have performed extremely well in Brazil under Lula since 2023, even in a fragile macro backdrop. The election-driven selloff left these cream-of-the-crop businesses at lower multiples, and more near-term selloffs are possible. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Brazilian equities look set to climb after Bolsonaro's son defeated President Lula, sparking expectations of pro-capital, pro-business policy. The Brazil ETF jumped 13% in a day, confirming on the weekly chart a breakout from a large wedge dating to 2010, then a retest and second leg higher. Don't chase it; wait for a technical pullback to enter. x.com 

Latin American equities' sell-off looks overdone as long as the underlying businesses keep growing and fundamentals remain intact. Under that condition, the drop is market noise, and MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings could offer attractive opportunities amid the panic. x.com