CoStar is super cheap and left for dead even though its proprietary data makes the business bulletproof against AI. All of software is getting a bid as the sky has not fallen, and the hostile activists have been forced to move on. It ranks as a top-conviction idea. x.com 

CoStar Group looks too cheap for its growth, expanding margins and network-effect assets. Its unique data network and marketplaces have durable network effects, and it could lead in agentic real-estate tech, with Homes AI an early look. If earnings compound over 20% organically for three years, below consensus, a high-teens to 20x 2027 P/E is probably too cheap. Q1 EBITDA more than doubled on lower personnel costs and AI efficiencies, and residential should turn profitable in Q2. x.com  x.com  … Show more

CoStar is still too expensive because its valuation needs a bigger discount for the AI threat. Its data remains ingrained in brokers' workflows and CEO Andy Florance is still well regarded, but the moat has shrunk. Below $30 there might be a way to structure an opportunity. x.com 

CoStar sits at the low of its December 2018 crash, having erased 7.5 years of price gains in nine months, which leaves years of revenue growth effectively free. The wounds are largely self-inflicted, while the business is simple enough for a fool to run. x.com  x.com 

De facto monopolies compound only when they have a reinvestment runway, not just a moat. TSMC ploughs profits into the next node, Intuitive Surgical into new procedures and installed base, and CoStar into new data verticals and regions, redeploying cash at high rates. A monopoly with no runway, like a toll road or regulated utility, is effectively a bond whose moat tempts investors to overpay. The screen tests genuine monopoly share, reinvestment runway and ROIC against its five-year average. … Show more

Colliers International looks interesting at 10x forward earnings for a decent business that AI is unlikely to disrupt notably on a horizon the stock can be judged on. Revenue is inflation-protected and recurring, and asset management and engineering, about half of earnings, are less subject to disruption. Executives have real skin in the game, insiders bought heavily this year and Durable Capital is a top-12 holder. CBRE may be a better pure play on commercial real estate. x.com  x.com