CoStar is super cheap and left for dead even though its proprietary data makes the business bulletproof against AI. All of software is getting a bid as the sky has not fallen, and the hostile activists have been forced to move on. It ranks as a top-conviction idea. x.com 

The market looks further ahead than today's weak housing conditions, so Rocket Companies and Zillow look bottomed. Both appear poised for big runs despite how bad the housing market remains. x.com 

CoStar is still too expensive because its valuation needs a bigger discount for the AI threat. Its data remains ingrained in brokers' workflows and CEO Andy Florance is still well regarded, but the moat has shrunk. Below $30 there might be a way to structure an opportunity. x.com 

CoStar sits at the low of its December 2018 crash, having erased 7.5 years of price gains in nine months, which leaves years of revenue growth effectively free. The wounds are largely self-inflicted, while the business is simple enough for a fool to run. x.com  x.com 

CoStar Group is a favored name because of its massive hold on commercial real estate. x.com 

Zillow looks very cheap after a very strong quarter with 18% revenue growth in a flat-to-down housing market. It is now a top-25 home loan originator, and while its push into Preferred changes revenue recognition, it still expects strong profits and double-digit growth. x.com 

Zillow's real lock-in is winning in rentals and mortgages, which the market does not see. As with Spotify in 2023, the stock is hated while the company outgrows its market, operating leverage kicks in and layoffs have been announced. If housing volume recovers and residential growth reaches 20%+, it becomes a rocket ship. x.com 

Colliers International looks interesting at 10x forward earnings for a decent business that AI is unlikely to disrupt notably on a horizon the stock can be judged on. Revenue is inflation-protected and recurring, and asset management and engineering, about half of earnings, are less subject to disruption. Executives have real skin in the game, insiders bought heavily this year and Durable Capital is a top-12 holder. CBRE may be a better pure play on commercial real estate. x.com  x.com 

Sherwin-Williams can earn much more as housing turnover normalizes, because its pricing power holds even while its biggest end market is broken. Paint Stores comps rose 4.2% in Q2 with existing home sales at a 4.06M pace, and FY26 EPS guidance rose to $11.80-12.20. A normal 5.3M year could add about $1.50-2 of EPS, or roughly $14 of earnings power, 24x at $330, with upside past $17 if input costs help. PPG's exit and Kelly Moore's liquidation leave it gaining pro share. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more