Rocket Companies is worth buying before the housing cycle turns, meaning the rate of deterioration shifts to a firm bottom and maybe improvement rather than a strong rebound. Housing is in an odd spot for a recovery call. Per investor institLPGP, Rocket is taking share, over-earning on its mortgage servicing book while it waits, and already cutting costs with AI, leaving its long-term earnings power far higher. x.com  x.com 

As the AI infrastructure crash takes form, its recessionary effect suppresses bond issuance and powerfully caps yields, giving battered housing, mortgage and related stocks a lift. Starwood Property Trust, Rocket Companies and Builders FirstSource should get a powerful boost as yields fall, with huge short covering and fundamental improvement; many in the group trade well below book value. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Companies is uninvestable while the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates keep rising. It could be worth owning when the time is right, but it is still too early. x.com 

Rocket Companies is positioned for higher mortgage volume as housing loosens and rates may ease. Inventory is up about 5.6% year over year with more flexible sellers, giving purchase originations a runway Rocket's digital scale can absorb. April to June is peak home-sales season, when its fast-close platform is an edge. With rates at 6-6.5% and the MBA projecting about 5.9% by Q4, a dip would reopen refinancing, Rocket's specialty. The median Wall Street target of $22 implies about 55% upside. … Show more

Rocket Companies' underlying platform is worth far more than its price, which looks like under 10x earnings power. Its mortgage servicing rights are exposed to rate hikes and credit, and the stock swings with rates, but management can largely shape earnings. @BoxLongs sees a big TAM and notes ValueAct's involvement, with the rate-driven selloff a reload point, though a sharp market drop could take it to $10-12. x.com  x.com 

Real estate stocks such as Rocket Companies, Zillow and Builders FirstSource will struggle to recover strongly until housing turnover increases. One possible offset: once rate hikes start, probably in September, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates could tick down. x.com 

Zillow's real lock-in is winning in rentals and mortgages, which the market does not see. As with Spotify in 2023, the stock is hated while the company outgrows its market, operating leverage kicks in and layoffs have been announced. If housing volume recovers and residential growth reaches 20%+, it becomes a rocket ship. x.com 

A clearing of the gloomy environment will make lending stocks the next multibaggers. SoFi, Upstart and Klarna are down now, much as many cybersecurity stocks were before rising two- to fourfold in under six months. Better Home & Finance (-75% YTD), LendingTree (-55%) and Rocket (-47%) join them among lending names whose current prices will look dirt cheap in 2028-2029. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Companies looks expensive against its prior trough: its $34B market cap is about a 25% premium to the $22-27B midpoint for Rocket plus Mr. Cooper at the last rate peak. Long-term earnings power should improve as it takes origination share and refinancing demand returns when rates fall, and Mr. Cooper's servicing book is minting cash. But servicing hedges, rate-volatility sensitivity and falling purchase volumes are uncertain, so adding only makes sense about 20% lower. x.com  x.com 

Zillow looks very cheap after a very strong quarter with 18% revenue growth in a flat-to-down housing market. It is now a top-25 home loan originator, and while its push into Preferred changes revenue recognition, it still expects strong profits and double-digit growth. x.com