Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Real estate stocks such as Rocket Companies, Zillow and Builders FirstSource will struggle to recover strongly until housing turnover increases. One possible offset: once rate hikes start, probably in September, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates could tick down. x.comÂ
Rocket Companies is uninvestable while the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates keep rising. It could be worth owning when the time is right, but it is still too early. x.comÂ
High Treasury yields keep US real-estate stocks from being a buy yet, despite a record low against the S&P 500. Each hike pushes the sector lower; the 10-year yield above 5% argues for waiting rather than assuming rotation is inevitable. A turn likely needs falling rates, perhaps a first cut or the 10-year back below 4%. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
As the AI infrastructure crash takes form, its recessionary effect suppresses bond issuance and powerfully caps yields, giving battered housing, mortgage and related stocks a lift. Starwood Property Trust, Rocket Companies and Builders FirstSource should get a powerful boost as yields fall, with huge short covering and fundamental improvement; many in the group trade well below book value. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Zillow is a Stage 4 stock in a clear downtrend, a reminder that a company can post decent numbers and still be a terrible stock. Rallies keep failing, and a recent bear flag preceded a 25% drop to new lows over six weeks. Housing stocks lack a favorable backdrop with mortgage rates above 6%. Down 67% from its highs, Zillow needs a 203% gain to break even, and laggards like this drag on performance. x.comÂ
Markets can front-run a rate turnaround, favoring an upward swing in Opendoor. Its transformation and a turn in rates are both bullish catalysts, while long-duration Treasuries look to be bottoming. Opendoor's stock is holding its support area. x.comÂ
The market looks further ahead than today's weak housing conditions, so Rocket Companies and Zillow look bottomed. Both appear poised for big runs despite how bad the housing market remains. x.comÂ
The secular rise in Treasury yields will likely last longer and go further than most expect, making bets on a yield low premature. Investors tried to time the low in yields from the early 2000s and were 20 years early. The most rate-sensitive sectors, homebuilders, mortgage names and private equity, where smart money would show up first if a turn were near, show no hint of accumulation. x.com x.comÂ
Zillow is likely to fall further as home sales decline. The stock has already hit a 52-week low. x.comÂ
Rocket Companies is positioned for higher mortgage volume as housing loosens and rates may ease. Inventory is up about 5.6% year over year with more flexible sellers, giving purchase originations a runway Rocket's digital scale can absorb. April to June is peak home-sales season, when its fast-close platform is an edge. With rates at 6-6.5% and the MBA projecting about 5.9% by Q4, a dip would reopen refinancing, Rocket's specialty. The median Wall Street target of $22 implies about 55% upside. … Show more
Opendoor's improving unit economics could create operating leverage when housing recovers. It could be one of 2026's most interesting speculative turnarounds. Q2 contribution profit rose 59% sequentially to $51 million, margin reached 4.8%, and profit per home sold rose about $5,000 to $22,000. It still has an adjusted EBITDA loss; mortgage rates, inventory and dilution threaten returns. The coming quarters must prove sustainable profits and shareholder value, not just volume. x.comÂ
