Rocket Companies looks expensive against its prior trough: its $34B market cap is about a 25% premium to the $22-27B midpoint for Rocket plus Mr. Cooper at the last rate peak. Long-term earnings power should improve as it takes origination share and refinancing demand returns when rates fall, and Mr. Cooper's servicing book is minting cash. But servicing hedges, rate-volatility sensitivity and falling purchase volumes are uncertain, so adding only makes sense about 20% lower. x.com  x.com 

Real estate stocks such as Rocket Companies, Zillow and Builders FirstSource will struggle to recover strongly until housing turnover increases. One possible offset: once rate hikes start, probably in September, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates could tick down. x.com 

The market looks further ahead than today's weak housing conditions, so Rocket Companies and Zillow look bottomed. Both appear poised for big runs despite how bad the housing market remains. x.com 

Rising mortgage rates and no apparent Fed concern about yields make BlackRock's bullish turn on Treasuries feel early. Mortgage rates reached 7.4% after seven straight weekly increases. x.com 

The secular rise in Treasury yields will likely last longer and go further than most expect, making bets on a yield low premature. Investors tried to time the low in yields from the early 2000s and were 20 years early. The most rate-sensitive sectors, homebuilders, mortgage names and private equity, where smart money would show up first if a turn were near, show no hint of accumulation. x.com  x.com 

Rocket Companies' underlying platform is worth far more than its price, which looks like under 10x earnings power. Its mortgage servicing rights are exposed to rate hikes and credit, and the stock swings with rates, but management can largely shape earnings. @BoxLongs sees a big TAM and notes ValueAct's involvement, with the rate-driven selloff a reload point, though a sharp market drop could take it to $10-12. x.com  x.com 

High Treasury yields keep US real-estate stocks from being a buy yet, despite a record low against the S&P 500. Each hike pushes the sector lower; the 10-year yield above 5% argues for waiting rather than assuming rotation is inevitable. A turn likely needs falling rates, perhaps a first cut or the 10-year back below 4%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rocket Companies, UWM, Opendoor, CarMax, Carvana, Sweetgreen, SoFi, Texas Roadhouse, Cava, Home Depot and Lowe's are among the first companies that will suffer from rate hikes. x.com 

Rocket Companies is worth buying before the housing cycle turns, meaning the rate of deterioration shifts to a firm bottom and maybe improvement rather than a strong rebound. Housing is in an odd spot for a recovery call. Per investor institLPGP, Rocket is taking share, over-earning on its mortgage servicing book while it waits, and already cutting costs with AI, leaving its long-term earnings power far higher. x.com  x.com 

Zillow is a Stage 4 stock in a clear downtrend, a reminder that a company can post decent numbers and still be a terrible stock. Rallies keep failing, and a recent bear flag preceded a 25% drop to new lows over six weeks. Housing stocks lack a favorable backdrop with mortgage rates above 6%. Down 67% from its highs, Zillow needs a 203% gain to break even, and laggards like this drag on performance. x.com