M Mohan
Private Equity at IncVangal, Former Microsoft Ventures Director
Rate-hike fears are dragging down the whole lending sector, making Figure Technology look like a bargain around $25. That sector selloff could offer an opportunity over the next few months. x.comÂ
Rising long-term yields threaten SoFi and other fintechs. The US 10-year yield is at its highest in about 30 years, and 10-year yields in Japan, Germany and the UK are also at highs, with Japan's at 2.91%, the highest since 1996. Klarna is the first casualty of this uncertainty, and it will hit SoFi and every other fintech. x.comÂ
As the AI infrastructure crash takes form, its recessionary effect suppresses bond issuance and powerfully caps yields, giving battered housing, mortgage and related stocks a lift. Starwood Property Trust, Rocket Companies and Builders FirstSource should get a powerful boost as yields fall, with huge short covering and fundamental improvement; many in the group trade well below book value. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rate-sensitive stocks look set to outperform as the market looks ahead to rates nearing a peak. After four years to price in inflation, these sectors have been severely punished, are excessively cheap and nobody owns them, and their divergence from bonds reflects that anticipation. Biotech showed a confluence of bullish factors earlier this year, airlines and real estate followed, and fintech now looks primed, despite lingering skepticism over rate and oil pressures. x.com x.comÂ
Small caps, housing stocks and unprofitable tech that ran on rate-cut hopes face a sharp repricing, as odds of a rate hike at the Fed's July 29 meeting tripled in a week. Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, new global tariffs lifted inflation expectations and the 10-year yield hit 4.71%. A Wells Fargo strategist said the Fed may need to hike more and faster than expected. With consumers already fragile, a hike would reprice small caps overnight. x.comÂ
A clearing of the gloomy environment will make lending stocks the next multibaggers. SoFi, Upstart and Klarna are down now, much as many cybersecurity stocks were before rising two- to fourfold in under six months. Better Home & Finance (-75% YTD), LendingTree (-55%) and Rocket (-47%) join them among lending names whose current prices will look dirt cheap in 2028-2029. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Companies is uninvestable while the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates keep rising. It could be worth owning when the time is right, but it is still too early. x.comÂ
The Fed's September 16 quarter-point hike affects the high-moat portfolio differently from the simple picture of borrowers paying more. Bond-rating companies are having record quarters because the AI building boom keeps borrowing whatever rates do, while brokers that should win get only a small bump. The real damage falls on home loans and on the price investors will pay today for profits far in the future, which is where most of the portfolio sits. x.comÂ
Markets can front-run a rate turnaround, favoring an upward swing in Opendoor. Its transformation and a turn in rates are both bullish catalysts, while long-duration Treasuries look to be bottoming. Opendoor's stock is holding its support area. x.comÂ
High Treasury yields keep US real-estate stocks from being a buy yet, despite a record low against the S&P 500. Each hike pushes the sector lower; the 10-year yield above 5% argues for waiting rather than assuming rotation is inevitable. A turn likely needs falling rates, perhaps a first cut or the 10-year back below 4%. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ