X-FAB's earnings confirmed direct exposure to co-packaged optics and the 800V shift, which should drive a re-rating as markets price growth ahead. Management said it is progressing in CPO, with three silicon photonics projects and photonics volume production expected in 2028, a timeline not in revenue models yet. The 800V transition supports SiC and GaN demand, with three new SiC data center design wins pointing to a 2027 ramp. Current revenue is unimpressive, so some waiting is needed. x.com  … Show more

X-FAB is a good name because 800V demand is booming for its traditional CMOS business, not because of CPO, which is too small and far from taking off. It can shift capacity from unprofitable automotive to profitable cloud-provider work, and its silicon carbide also targets 800V. It is a rare fab with products at about 1.5x book, cheap because past profits were weak; earnings should improve as Chinese foundry costs have doubled. A 2–2.5x book multiple looks achievable, but not a 5–10x return. … Show more

X-FAB still has a lot to prove because its execution has consistently been poor, despite promising technology. Management targeted about €300 million of silicon carbide revenue by 2026 and delivered essentially nothing, with most of that business going to Infineon. Its new photonics story, led by a €48 million EU consortium with NVIDIA as a partner, makes headlines, but NVIDIA has no obligation to become a customer. It stays on the watch list until actual execution under the new CEO. x.com 

X-FAB's silicon carbide and photonics growth will become impossible to ignore once autos recover, especially at 1.29x book value. @aleabitoreddit notes that Nvidia's 800V DC push favors GaN and SiC power chips, that fabless beneficiaries such as Navitas rely on foundries, and that buyers increasingly want Western supply chains. x.com 

X-FAB looks quite undervalued, with 2x potential in the short term, as a Bernstein upgrade and new CHIPS Act funding arrive. Bernstein upgraded it to Outperform and raised its target to €12.8 from €5, leaving about 38% upside from roughly €9.3. Per @aleabitoreddit, X-FAB receives €127.4 million under the CHIPS Act for its Fab4Micro MEMS foundry in Erfurt, with production planned for 2028. x.com  x.com 

X-FAB's celebrated AI capacity expansion means very little for shareholders today: no new revenue, no new customer and no meaningful earnings before 2029. It is merely the formal handover of a €127 million subsidy approved in late 2025, a normal 30-40% rate, and X-FAB must still fund most of the investment. The cleanroom will not produce until late 2028 and mainly serves its legacy automotive, smartphone and medical markets, making it one of the least exciting AI-linked stocks fundamentally. … Show more

X-FAB is a pure-play silicon carbide and gallium nitride foundry, reminiscent of an early Tower Semiconductor or Soitec. Per @aleabitoreddit, NIST filings name it the only high-volume SiC foundry in America, making it critical infrastructure as NVIDIA pushes 800 VDC and power-chip peers Navitas and Wolfspeed rerate hard. It is also in CHIPS Act 2 blueprints for photonics, with Nokia and NVIDIA evaluations underway and volume production expected in H1 2028, all at a $1.5B market cap. x.com 

Fabrinet is levered to 3-to-10-year growth themes while being much less cyclical than pure optical transceiver makers. Its vectors include co-packaged optics, data-center interconnect, lidar and sensors for physical AI, and custom ASIC work, and the optical cycle likely has a 3-5 year runway left. It also benefits from hyperscaler direct programs that sidestep transceiver companies, and serves aerospace, industrial and medtech markets too. The stock looks to be consolidating after a repricing. … Show more

X-FAB is not a strong long-term investment because legacy automotive drag and high operating costs are too heavy for a big pivot or soaring profits in the next few years. It is a relatively stable, revenue-generating company, but it rarely delivers anything groundbreaking. It works only as a short-term swing trade, riding occasional hype or liquidity pumps such as @aleabitoreddit's interest. x.com 

Lumentum's AI-optics case gains longer supply visibility: CEO Michael Hurlston says capacity is effectively sold out through early 2029 and expects roughly 70% of demand for some products to go unmet through 2027; others could face roughly 30% unmet demand through 2028. Scarcity could support pricing, but earnings growth depends on capacity expansion and yield improvements translating into shipments, revenue and margins. x.com