Martin Bradstreet
Investor & Programmer, Former Poker Player
Dave looks cheap after earnings, one of the names still growing fast at a low multiple. Plenty still trades below 20x adjusted EBITDA with more than 30% growth, or 30x with more than 40% growth, and Dave fits that screen alongside AppLovin and Celestica, although expectations for all three have been very high. x.comÂ
Celestica looks unusually inexpensive relative to its growth. Its enterprise value is 0.99 times next-twelve-month revenue against 58.7% revenue growth, yielding a 0.0168 growth-adjusted revenue multiple; few companies compare better. Its 14.7 times forward earnings against 69.8% earnings growth gives a 0.21 PEG, below the conventional 1.0 fair-value heuristic. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celestica's Q3 beat and first 2027 guidance make its growth look underpriced. Revenue rose 83% and EPS 109%; management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $21B and put 2027 revenue at $40B-plus and EPS at $21.50, implying about 90% and 85% growth. At roughly 12x 2027 EPS after hours, shares are probably 50% undervalued; initial targets may have upside, with revenue growth potentially reaching 100%. At $34.50 of 2028 EPS and 24x earnings, shares would be worth $828. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Dave trades at a premium despite looking less exciting and less stable than SoFi or Chime, a case of the market chasing momentum and charts over fundamentals. SoFi is the best of the three, with nearly twice their growth and profitability. x.comÂ
Dave looks like a long-term winner because it is relentlessly compounding earnings. EPS swung from -$4.07 in 2023 to $16.71 in 2026, with $27.83 expected for 2028. x.comÂ
AppLovin is dirt cheap at roughly 13-15x 2027 EBIT, with the market treating it like a dying gaming ad company and ignoring its e-commerce potential. Rising AXON Pixel data shows the e-commerce story is not priced in, while the full bear case is. Buybacks make the multiple a few percent cheaper still, and growth could accelerate within the next year. The long requires high conviction and trust in management to succeed in new segments. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celestica is cheap at 13x next-12-month consensus EBITDA while growing revenue 65%, even after analysts updated their models for its Q2 earnings beat. x.comÂ
Dave has the best valuation among online banking and consumer lending peers such as Affirm, SoFi and Ally, and its large base sets it up for a big breakout: the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout. x.comÂ
The Trade Desk has shown many red flags, and a huge Q2 miss confirmed them. Revenue of $715M missed the $751M estimate, adjusted EPS fell 17%, and Q3 guidance of at least $650M revenue and about $160M EBITDA was far below estimates of $805M and $341M, per @wallstengine. It bought back $78M of stock while heading for that miss. Unlike AppLovin, it has not been very profitable for years, with heavy dilution and stock-based pay, slower growth and smaller scale. x.com x.com x.comÂ
These holdings look almost GARP and asymmetric, with the cheapest eight below 18.2x 2028 EV/EBIT while EBIT is expected to grow at a 22-85% CAGR from 2026 to 2029. On analyst-derived 2028 EV/EBIT (P/E for Nu), Nu is at 9.6x, AppLovin 10.2x, Nvidia 11.2x, Coherent 11.4x, Lumentum 13.5x, Sea 14.4x, Credo 17.1x, MercadoLibre 18.2x, Astera Labs 28.6x and Palantir 37.7x. Own estimates come in lower for Nu, AppLovin, Nvidia, Credo and Palantir. x.comÂ
