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Audit The Herd

CPA, Corporate Finance Professional

16 Jul, 10:48Latest

Guardant Health still looks overvalued because its Shield screening economics are not proven at scale. Management's own 2028 guidance of about $2.2 billion revenue has not been raised, and Shield's unit economics remain weak, with high COGS and dilution at current volumes. Even on @somebakedziti's upside case of $2.8 billion revenue and a 25x multiple, the 2028 price is in the mid-$90s, worth about $65-78 today. Better reimbursement does not change current unit economics or valuation. x.com

15 Jul, 11:35

Guardant Health looks overvalued at about a $20B market cap because it lacks Tempus's operating leverage and will return less cash to shareholders. A somewhat optimistic 2028 projection of about $2.25B revenue at a 15% operating margin and 20x gives roughly $7.9B of equity value with cash, about $66 a share in 2028, or $47-53 today. Oncology is about $1B growing mid-20s, while screening burns cash until cost per test nears $200. A lawsuit could bring some royalties, though likely not material. x.com

Stocker-Man

Long-Term Growth Investor & Swing Trader, Public Investing Journal

30 Aug

TEM

Tempus AI's diagnostics-to-data-to-AI flywheel makes its roughly 7.2x forward sales interesting, about half Natera's and Guardant's 16x, though both grow faster. Q2 revenue rose 22% to $382.5M, Data Licensing & Modeling grew 36%, and 2026 guidance is about $1.6B of revenue and $65M of adjusted EBITDA. As a ~25% growth diagnostics company, ~7x may be reasonable; if growth reaccelerates toward 30%+, Data + Applications grows much larger and margins expand, the valuation could look very different. … Show more

Sigma Zero Capital

Founder of Sigma Zero Capital, Thematic Trader

25 May

BLLN

BillionToOne is taking share in both prenatal testing and oncology thanks to patented technology that makes its tests more sensitive and specific. It is the only diagnostic peer that is GAAP profitable, and it may be best positioned to offer a genuinely useful early cancer detection test, adding optionality. On revenue it looks pricier, but its real comparables, Natera and Guardant Health, are about 50% more expensive while growing more slowly and earning less. x.com x.com

Enes Uludağ

US Equity & Global Macro Analysis, Financial Statements & Sector Research

26 Aug

Guardant Health's Q2 drove its rally: revenue rose 44% to $335 million, comfortably beating expectations, and it raised its year-end revenue target to $1.35 billion. Technically, all moving averages are stacked and the stock has rested between $145 and $175 since early July; a high-volume break above $170 would leave clear room upward. x.com

FestivusCap

Public Equities Commentary

7 Oct

NTRA

Natera is the best short in diagnostics because its valuation demands accelerating KPIs that are likely to slow. Signatera is great, but growth should decelerate, while the legacy women's health business is highly penetrated and facing competition from BillionToOne. Opex should rise next year more than the buy side expects, and the stock is crowded with tourists. Even 25% sales growth for a decade with 25% EBITDA margins yields only about $250 a share on a DCF. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

FestivusCap

Public Equities Commentary

13 Jul

Guardant Health's Shield has the edge over Freenome in colorectal screening. The data are the same, but Guardant gives patients a free option to screen for other cancers and has better coverage, making it more seamless. Freenome was supposed to differentiate on advanced adenoma detection, but its results were mediocre. x.com

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