Johan Ekroth
AI Infrastructure/Space/Defense Investor, Bottleneck Research
Howmet Aerospace's gas-turbine business is accelerating, but the market still prices it as one business on one multiple. Aerospace grew 12% in 2025, while industrial gas turbines grew 25% and 32% in Q4, and management sees that business rising from about $1B to over $2B in 3-5 years. Unlike GE Vernova and ATI, whose stories are absorbed, this is not yet fully visible. The May 7 Q1 report will show whether the turbine growth holds. x.comÂ
GE Aerospace's rising orders and higher 2026 free cash flow strengthen its growth case. Orders rose 49% overall and 58% in Commercial Engines & Services. That segment's revenue rose 21%, with services up 17% and equipment up 38%; defense rose 7%. Commercial Engines & Services margins were in line, with mix and inflation noted. x.comÂ
FTAI Aviation is one of the most mispriced names in the power trade after falling nearly 50% from its high. It owns the largest pool of 737 engines on earth; airlines cannot get new engines, so old ones fly longer, and with fuel up 70% airlines are dumping jets, letting FTAI buy engines cheap. It is converting those engines into data-center turbines for 2027 delivery, while GE and Siemens quote 2029, with a $1.465B order in hand. Three sold-out markets, one engine, under 10x next year's EBITDA. … Show more
Howmet Aerospace is an obvious short because its valuation is insane for a cyclical industrial. Its oligopoly in turbine blades, where only three companies can produce at scale, is already well known and priced in at about 100x free cash flow. Even a bull case implies only a 2.7% free cash flow yield on 2030 numbers, far less attractive than Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia or Salesforce. x.com x.comÂ
FTAI Aviation is becoming one of the most undervalued and compelling power plays in AI infrastructure, growing earnings far faster than GE Vernova at a much lower multiple. Per sell-side estimates, FTAI trades at 22x NTM EPS with EPS growing 50-55% this year and 75-80% next, a 46% CAGR through 2028, versus GE Vernova's 28% CAGR at 58x. It just announced another roughly $1.5B order through partner J&F Power Systems, and found support at the 50% retracement after a 40% drop from February highs. … Show more
GE Aerospace earns most of its money servicing a huge installed engine base, and record air traffic keeps that base turning. Engines sell at up to 70% off, while shop visits bring up to 70% of lifetime revenue; services were about 70% of 2025's $42B revenue, with a $210B backlog. At 43x earnings versus a 37x five-year average it is not cheap, a premium backed by the end of the conglomerate discount, margins and visibility. A correction would come only with a normal general market pullback. x.com … Show more
GE Vernova sits at the center of the most capital-intensive buildout in a generation because AI data centers need massive power and it builds the gas turbines that make it. Every new hyperscaler data center is effectively a new order. Its backlog is $150B and already booked, orders rose 71% last quarter, and Q1 2026 free cash flow exceeded all of 2025's. It has zero debt and $8B in cash, doubled the dividend, expanded buybacks to $10B, and targets $44-45B of revenue in 2026 and $56B in 2028. … Show more
Vertiv's demand is accelerating, so GLJ Research's $188 target against a $255 stock and a consensus near $350 looks badly wrong. Vertiv's orders doubled and deferred revenue just posted the biggest jump in company history; customers prepaying at records is not how a cyclical downturn starts. GLJ's similar sell call on GE Vernova as a cyclical turbine maker failed: the stock now trades above $1,000, over double its target, and its CEO is selling delivery slots for 2032. x.comÂ
Broadwind looks cheap, and natural gas turbines should be a multi-year tailwind. Two concerns remain open: the 2024 dip, which calls for a closer look at the financials and the cyclicality of its exposure, and margins that are still low. x.comÂ
GE Vernova's gas business is strengthening, just days after people were fading the stock. Per a quoted report, it expects gas capacity additions to grow about 50% by year-end, with second-half contract commitments now expected to exceed its 20GW guidance and Q4 tracking above Q3. x.comÂ
Broadwind is turning from a low-margin, lumpy wind tower maker into a precision-components platform for power generation and critical infrastructure, and the Q1 revenue miss masks that pivot. The wind exit completes September 5, 2026. Industrial Solutions backlog hit a record $43.3M on gas turbine demand with 1.6x book-to-bill; Gearing orders rose 66% and backlog 107% to $30.5M. About $300M of NOLs and 1.7x net leverage give room for bolt-on acquisitions into 2027. x.comÂ
