GitLab is not worth investing in because of competition from Microsoft's GitHub, even after a 75% drawdown. AI won't replace the tool, and it has strong switching-cost and brand moats. x.com
Techquity
Technology Investor, Fundamental Research
GitLab is not going to become the new GitHub. As @endingwithali notes, GitLab's CEO previously ran New Relic, which was sold to private equity rather than becoming the alternative customers sought when they were annoyed at Datadog's prices. x.com
Elevated AI risk makes GitLab a stock not worth being long at $60, despite a personal fair-value estimate at that level. A post by choblin29 reports that Anthropic replaced Git with its own version-control system and built Scion for code review. x.com x.com
GitLab looks mispriced against the data value implied by xAI's deal for an option to buy Cursor at $60 billion. At about $2.5 billion of enterprise value, GitLab's code data would be worth only around 5% of Cursor's, which is hard to believe; even a weak plan to monetize that data should spark a monster move, and if management won't, another company could acquire GitLab to exploit it. One caveat: a large share of GitLab is self-managed, so that portion cannot be trained on. x.com
GitLab is poorly placed to exploit GitHub's moment of weakness because its product is too similar to GitHub and in many ways worse. Hands-on testing found poor design: it took minutes to find where to create a repo, and pushing failed because force push to main was disabled. That explains why few are talking about migrating despite the stock's 50%+ fall over the past year. Unless it reinvents the product, it is not worth buying; whatever comes next in source control will look different. x.com … Show more
GitLab's results don't justify the stock's after-hours rise. Expense dollars grew far faster than revenue dollars, 117% net retention is unimpressive at this valuation, and stock-based compensation rose 50% year over year. x.com
GitLab should see some GitHub-to-GitLab migration and excitement, but Duo Agent is unlikely to contribute meaningfully until next quarter, if not later. A post-earnings drop back to where the stock started, as @cryptopunk2020 predicts, would be welcome as a chance at more cheap shares. x.com
GitLab faces an existential crisis as the AI "SaaSapocalypse" arrives, yet it still trades at 4.7x sales despite decelerating growth and 10+ analyst downgrades in 2026. x.com
GitLab doesn't justify 65x forward earnings or a 17% post-earnings jump. Gross margin is compressing, possibly structurally, the quarter and guide show little operating leverage, it is still EBIT-negative at a $9.2bn market cap, and guidance appears to point to decelerating growth. x.com
OpenAI's open-source Codex Security CLI looks complementary to GitLab rather than a threat, and the market has moved past punishing GitLab on such news. Six months ago, a release that lets users scan repositories, verify fixes and add security checks to CI/CD would have sent the stock down 10%. x.com
GitLab's revenue strength is not worth celebrating because it jammed sales and marketing spending to grab subscribers. x.com