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Bottleneck Capital

Long/Short Investor, Technology, Media & Telecom

4 Sep, 09:34Latest

Ciena's selloff priced a slowdown from 35% to 30% growth, but most of that 30% is already sold at prices Ciena is still raising. Q3 revenue rose 37% to $1.67B, the FY26 guide rose to $6.42B, and the early FY27 floor is at least 30% growth with at least 45% gross margin. Backlog hit $8.5B, expected above $10B by year end, mostly with customer-requested 2027 dates. Ciena is raising prices from high single digits into the low 20s, even on signed orders, which no one does into softening demand. x.com

CIEN

3 Sep, 11:40

The AI supply squeeze has moved to optics, favoring Lumentum and Ciena. Per Lumentum's Michael Hurlston, indium phosphide capacity trails demand by more than 30%, a wider gap than in DRAM or NAND. Ciena beat and raised, with revenue up 37% to $1.67B and FY26 guidance up to $6.42B, though Q4 gross margin guidance dips to 45%. Co-packaged optics' lower power per bit could spread training clusters across buildings, which buy more line systems and lasers. x.com

LITE

CIEN

Schulz Duggan

AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing

17 Sep

CIEN

Ciena's new 2029 margin target depends on price increases sticking after the optical shortage ends. Its investor forum set about $14bn of 2029 revenue, roughly 30% a year from 2026, adjusted gross margin near 50% and 32-35% operating margin. Orders grew 79% a year and backlog 118% from 2024 to 2026, and the CFO sees no supply-demand balance before 2028. But price hikes of high single digits to low 20s are a key margin lever, so whether fiscal 2027 margin holds 45-46% is the test. x.com

Kairos

Stock Research

29 Oct

SMOP.OL

Repeat orders and larger new-customer orders are driving SmartOptics' growth. Q3 revenue rose 80% and EBIT 340%, with strong cash flow. Ciena and Nokia are busy serving hyperscalers; SmartOptics should scoop up all other smaller customers. Its 300M revenue target by 2030 suggests more growth. x.com

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

4 Jun

CIEN

Ciena looks dicey beyond the short term, in line with a Seeking Alpha article by Wail Shudar written shortly before its earnings plunge. A post the author replies to notes the stock is now technically in a much better place. x.com x.com

KawzInvests

Co-Author of Asymmetrical Bets, Photonics/Optical Cycle, AI/Defense/Space

16 Jun

CIEN

Ciena's 30% drop from its high has nothing to do with the business, and both sell-off catalysts have now cleared. It beat EPS by 12%, grew revenue 40% and raised guidance to $6.3B, in line with consensus after a 200% run, while a $2.875B convertible added hedge selling through June 11. Hyperscalers are linking GPU clusters across cities and continents with 800G and 1.6T coherent optics, where Ciena leads data center interconnect, a market doubling to $50B by 2029. Backlog is $7.7B. x.com

Jason Luongo

Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies

10 Sep

CIEN

Ciena is 47% off its high after a valuation selloff despite strong hyperscaler-driven growth. Revenue grew 37% to $1.67B and adjusted EPS tripled. Backlog is $8.5B and expected to pass $10B by year-end, half of revenue now comes directly from hyperscalers, and data center revenue has quadrupled this year. Management's preliminary 2027 outlook of at least $8.3B implies another 30% growth, with supply tight until 2028. x.com

GrowthTurtle

Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma

4 Sep

CIEN

Ciena looks expensive against its earnings: it trades at about 30 times next year's estimated $10.68 a share, versus the 18 times the industry usually gets. That implies fair value of about $169-215, putting the stock 47% above the high end. The read leans on forecasts, since forward earnings are 226% above trailing, and is based on levels only, with no fundamental work. x.com

SuperLuckeee

Day & Swing Trader, Options/Futures & Credit Spreads

2 Jun

CIEN

Ciena has a $640 price target as AI data center optical demand explodes, with a confirmed $7B backlog. x.com

Paradis

AI & Technology Investment Research

16 Aug

CIEN

Ciena solves inter-data-center bandwidth constraints, one of AI's bottlenecks alongside compute and power, and it trades at a more compelling price after the July selloff. Its $7.7B backlog, with about 80% converting to revenue within a year, is chunky. x.com

IvanaSPEAR

Founder & CIO of Spear Invest, Portfolio Manager of SPRX ETF

19 Aug

CIEN

Ciena looks pretty attractive at current levels. x.com

TheValueist

Discretionary Long/Short Investor, TMT/Energy, Convexity & Factor Awareness

5 Apr

CIEN

Ciena has real leverage to AI and cloud demand, which is now visibly driving subsea and long-haul optical upgrades. Lightstorm upgraded the Japan-Guam-Australia cable to 400Gbps with Ciena's WaveLogic, carrying production traffic for a leading cloud platform on a route that avoids the South China Sea. Such upgrades get more capacity from installed cable, a recurring model rather than one-off builds. @ParadisLabs' claims of a dated 400G threshold and direct hyperscaler margin gains go too far. … Show more

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