Johan Ekroth
AI Infrastructure/Space/Defense Investor, Bottleneck Research
STMicroelectronics' silicon photonics foundry thesis is developing faster than expected. ST raised 2026 datacenter revenue guidance from nicely above $500M to about $1B, and 2027 could double that. Its PIC100, co-developed with AWS, is the only pure silicon platform at 300mm capable of 200Gbps per lane and is in high-volume production for hyperscalers, while Goldman Sachs sees optical networking TAM growing from $15B to $154B. x.com
STMicroelectronics is still priced as a recovering auto chipmaker even though it supplies the photonic chips inside hyperscaler silicon photonics transceivers. Its PIC100, made in Crolles and co-developed with AWS, is the only pure silicon 300mm platform at 200Gbps per lane, and its TSV version targets co-packaged optics, which Goldman sees adding $91B of a $154B optical TAM by 2028. Data center revenue is guided from near zero to $1B+ by 2027, with photonics volumes hitting in H2 2026. x.com
STMicroelectronics is an early turnaround story because AI infrastructure has given it a new growth engine. On June 2 it doubled its 2026 data center revenue target to about $1B, saying that could double again in 2027 if trends hold, on high-volume silicon photonics anchored by a multi-year AWS partnership. Q1 revenue rose 23% to $3.1B, it holds about $2.8B net cash, and Bank of America upgraded it to Buy, saying the market underestimates its earnings power. x.com
STMicroelectronics is one of the top names in power semiconductors and physical AI. Per @wallstengine, it raised its 2026 data-center revenue outlook to about $1B from "nicely above $500M" and expects that to double to about $2B in 2027 based on current customer engagements. About two-thirds is expected from optical components, including MCUs, silicon photonic PICs and BiCMOS EICs, with power chips the rest. x.com
STMicroelectronics offers rare asymmetry for a large cap: a bear case in line with the S&P 500, a slightly better base case and a wildly better bull case. 2026 marked an inflection in its data-center business, with a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar Amazon agreement and guidance raised from $1B before 2030 to well above $2B in 2027. A base case with a modest AI business implies 15% annual growth through 2030; if photonics, power and robotics reach a third of revenue, 30-50%. x.com x.com x.com
SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler's report of customer signals beyond fiscal 2030 adds storage to the long-duration AI hardware-demand case. He says those signals come through new-business-model partnerships; Micron and SK hynix in memory and Lumentum in photonics were already cited as signs of demand beyond 2030. x.com
Credo is shifting from a cable company to an optics-led growth story, and its beat-and-raise confirms real AI infrastructure demand. Q1 revenue was $479M versus $435M expected, and Q2 guidance of $525–535M topped the $465M consensus, with 68% non-GAAP margins. Credo reiterated over $600M of FY27 optical revenue, with ZeroFlap optics, PICs and optical DSPs each above $100M. Its Pilot software cuts AI cluster bring-up from 6–8 weeks to 5–6 days. The top four customers drove 84% of Q1 revenue. … Show more
Aehr Test Systems is monetizing the test layer of the AI optical interconnect buildout as silicon photonics burn-in reaches production scale. It guided FY2027 revenue to $130-150M, up 160-200% from $50M, after record bookings of $60.7M and a $100.6M effective backlog. Every 800G and 1.6T transceiver and optical I/O chip in AI data centers needs reliability screening, so transceiver growth feeds burn-in demand. Its lead silicon photonics customer keeps reordering and a second is ramping. x.com
STMicroelectronics is a hidden common thread across semiconductors, and the market is waking up to it in 2026. It turns up in silicon carbide and GaN power devices, its STM32 is effectively the MCU standard, and it leads MEMS sensor share. Its chips sit in SpaceX Starlink satellites, AWS data center infrastructure and a humanoid robot shown at NVIDIA's headquarters. A "European semiconductor" label long kept interest lukewarm, but that perception is breaking down fast. x.com
Tower Semiconductor's silicon photonics is shifting from future optionality to a production ramp, making it a merchant SiPho foundry tied to AI optical connectivity rather than a legacy analog foundry. With NewPhotonics, it began high-volume shipments of laser-integrated optical engines on its PH18DA platform for 800G and 1.6T, putting lasers, amplifiers, modulators and detectors on one chip to cut assembly complexity. A 6.4T near-packaged optics chipset targets volume shipments in 1H27. x.com
Credo's acquisition of DustPhotonics is strategically compelling, though the investable case is narrower than a generic move into optics. What is evidenced is tighter control of the silicon photonics PIC layer, better DSP-PIC co-design, stronger 800G and 1.6T pluggable positioning and more flexibility across AECs, optical DSPs and transceivers. Dust's revenue, margin and backlog are undisclosed, so the $500M+ FY27 optical target and EPS accretion are management framing, not proof. x.com
Photonics suppliers ride the same curves Marvell just laid out through 2030. Marvell targets $70-90B of fiscal 2031 revenue from $8.2B last year, with a TAM 4x its last investor day and interconnect the biggest segment at about $37.5B. Supply is tight: Lumentum's CEO says it can meet only 30% of customer demand next year, and Coherent is booked through 2027. @AsymmetricBets_ applied Marvell's model to Lumentum, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics, Ciena, Tower Semiconductor and Astera Labs. x.com
