peony
Equity Investor & Researcher
GeneDx's proposed Medicare cuts may have a much smaller direct impact than its selloff implies. Craig-Hallum estimates a $5.6 million annual hit, about 1% of exome and genome revenue. Q2 testing volume grew 32%, though revenue per test is declining; the proprietary rare-disease database and potential for AI-driven interpretation remain compelling. At $65, risk/reward might be attractive again, but reimbursement, profitability and execution remain risks. November 3 earnings should clarify. x.comÂ
GeneDx is still worth a lot more and is the first position in an AI and biotech thematic basket. It came up in a screen with recent insider buying and appears fairly anti-correlated with the AI trade. x.comÂ
NeoGenomics is firing on all cylinders at new all-time highs after a power gap on its recent earnings, in the strong genetic-testing corner of medical devices. It carries a rare A+ accumulation grade and a 97 relative-strength rating, and surfaced on a 'Power PEG' screen. x.comÂ
Genomics is likely one of the most important long-term investment themes of the next decade, as AI speeds how life's information is read, understood and edited. Picks: Illumina in sequencing; Tempus AI for AI with genomic data; CRISPR Therapeutics and Beam in gene editing; uniQure (high risk, high payoff) and BioMarin (more certain) in gene therapy; Natera and Guardant Health in diagnostics; Twist Bioscience and Thermo Fisher in tools; Vertex and Alnylam in therapeutics. x.comÂ
AI now makes early disease detection possible at scale, and catching disease early is always cheaper than treating it late. Detection names like Grail, Guardant, RadNet and Lunit win on distribution and reimbursement; grading names like Tempus, Veracyte, GE HealthCare and HeartFlow build data moats near treatment decisions. Monitoring via Natera, Personalis and iRhythm is the most asymmetric layer, a recurring subscription. NVIDIA gets paid whichever test wins. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a data company that happens to sell diagnostics, positioning it for the next re-rate in AI-enabled healthcare and drug discovery. It holds 45M+ de-identified records and 500+ petabytes, growing every time a clinician runs a test. Diagnostics funds the moat, and the data business is the moat, with 41% growth and 73% margins, a layer nobody can rebuild from scratch. x.comÂ
Bio-diagnostics offers the best value in the market, trading at lower price-to-sales multiples than software with low correlation to the AI trade. Its data-services businesses should become increasingly important because of AI. Tempus is the key name to understand, with smaller players including Exagen, Quanterix and GeneDx in the theme, and Caris Life Sciences just posted great results. x.com x.comÂ