GeneDx sold off on quarter-over-quarter pricing concerns even though it makes plenty of money, has ridiculous upside optionality and a solid chance of executing on it in the medium term. x.com  x.com 

GeneDx's proposed Medicare cuts may have a much smaller direct impact than its selloff implies. Craig-Hallum estimates a $5.6 million annual hit, about 1% of exome and genome revenue. Q2 testing volume grew 32%, though revenue per test is declining; the proprietary rare-disease database and potential for AI-driven interpretation remain compelling. At $65, risk/reward might be attractive again, but reimbursement, profitability and execution remain risks. November 3 earnings should clarify. x.com 

Moderna's mRNA vaccine news and Twist Bioscience's partnership with Anthropic could spark the cancer and genomics theme across treatments, diagnostics and tools, lifting Personalis, Guardant Health, Twist, HTFL, NeoGenomics and genomics stocks broadly. x.com 

Tempus AI's diagnostics-to-data-to-AI flywheel makes its roughly 7.2x forward sales interesting, about half Natera's and Guardant's 16x, though both grow faster. Q2 revenue rose 22% to $382.5M, Data Licensing & Modeling grew 36%, and 2026 guidance is about $1.6B of revenue and $65M of adjusted EBITDA. As a ~25% growth diagnostics company, ~7x may be reasonable; if growth reaccelerates toward 30%+, Data + Applications grows much larger and margins expand, the valuation could look very different. … Show more

GeneDx is still worth a lot more and is the first position in an AI and biotech thematic basket. It came up in a screen with recent insider buying and appears fairly anti-correlated with the AI trade. x.com 

BillionToOne is taking share in both prenatal testing and oncology thanks to patented technology that makes its tests more sensitive and specific. It is the only diagnostic peer that is GAAP profitable, and it may be best positioned to offer a genuinely useful early cancer detection test, adding optionality. On revenue it looks pricier, but its real comparables, Natera and Guardant Health, are about 50% more expensive while growing more slowly and earning less. x.com  x.com 

Genomics is likely one of the most important long-term investment themes of the next decade, as AI speeds how life's information is read, understood and edited. Picks: Illumina in sequencing; Tempus AI for AI with genomic data; CRISPR Therapeutics and Beam in gene editing; uniQure (high risk, high payoff) and BioMarin (more certain) in gene therapy; Natera and Guardant Health in diagnostics; Twist Bioscience and Thermo Fisher in tools; Vertex and Alnylam in therapeutics. x.com 

Natera is the best short in diagnostics because its valuation demands accelerating KPIs that are likely to slow. Signatera is great, but growth should decelerate, while the legacy women's health business is highly penetrated and facing competition from BillionToOne. Opex should rise next year more than the buy side expects, and the stock is crowded with tourists. Even 25% sales growth for a decade with 25% EBITDA margins yields only about $250 a share on a DCF. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Guardant Health's Q2 drove its rally: revenue rose 44% to $335 million, comfortably beating expectations, and it raised its year-end revenue target to $1.35 billion. Technically, all moving averages are stacked and the stock has rested between $145 and $175 since early July; a high-volume break above $170 would leave clear room upward. x.com 

Bio-diagnostics offers the best value in the market, trading at lower price-to-sales multiples than software with low correlation to the AI trade. Its data-services businesses should become increasingly important because of AI. Tempus is the key name to understand, with smaller players including Exagen, Quanterix and GeneDx in the theme, and Caris Life Sciences just posted great results. x.com  x.com