ThePortablePortfolio
Undercovered Value Investor, EM/AI Infrastructure/Crypto Rails
Kaspi.kz and MercadoLibre offer growth that developed markets stopped producing, which is the real case for geographic diversification beyond risk reduction. Kaspi operates where digital banking penetration is still expanding rapidly, and MercadoLibre owns Latin American commerce and payments. Both report earnings next week. x.comÂ
Nu and MercadoLibre's biggest secular-growth advantage is resilience to electoral and macro shocks. Nu hit 139 million customers and $1 billion quarterly net income through Brazil's recession, impeachment and pandemic. MercadoLibre survived the dot-com crash and devaluations; Mercado Pago has nearly 78 million monthly users and credit growth above 90% year on year. With regional e-commerce growing 15%-20% annually, their value through 2027 depends on adoption and delinquencies, not one election. … Show more
MercadoLibre's commerce and fintech revenue growth underpins the view that its shares are undervalued at current prices. The attached chart shows quarterly commerce services revenue reaching $4.3 billion and fintech revenue $4.4 billion in June 2026, up from $769 million and $467 million in March 2021. x.comÂ
Political uncertainty and Amazon competition have held MercadoLibre's stock back despite a humming business. The company is great and the stock deserves to turn, but at roughly 45 times earnings and only about 12% gained over five years, it has remained a difficult stock to own. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre is Amazon, PayPal, FedEx and a bank in one, building Latin America's digital infrastructure in early innings with a full-stack data moat no rival has matched across 18 countries. Mercado Pago processes $87B a quarter, two-thirds outside the marketplace, and banking licenses cut out middlemen; logistics delivers 80% of goods within 48 hours and credit defaults run near half the industry rate. Q1 revenue grew 49% to $8.85B. Margin pressure from heavy investment is the trade-off. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's marketplace repayment data means much sharper fintech risk pricing, much more revenue per user, a much better loyalty program and even lower churn. Its fintech already has rapidly growing engagement and resilient cross-cycle underwriting; relatively high GDP per capita alongside heavy cash use leaves room to displace cash. Both its marketplace and fintech are growing rapidly. x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Today's fundamentals and long growth runways make Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre among the market's most compelling and mispriced opportunities for patient capital. Their short-term outlook shifts mostly with FX volatility and fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty. x.comÂ
Kaspi.kz is an outcome-agnostic play on the Iran conflict: high oil prices benefit Kazakhstan, while regional peace and opening let Kaspi expand. At about 7x earnings, its super-app dominance in Central Asia is underappreciated. Its Turkish unit Hepsiburada and resumed dividends add interest. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre falls into the disliked software sector despite being a big platform with fintech, and there are many hungry Latin Americans who want to use AI to build software too. x.comÂ
Latin American equities' sell-off looks overdone as long as the underlying businesses keep growing and fundamentals remain intact. Under that condition, the drop is market noise, and MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings could offer attractive opportunities amid the panic. x.comÂ
