Philipp Haas
Founder of Haas invest4 Innovation Fund, Creator of investresearch
Kaspi.kz is an outcome-agnostic play on the Iran conflict: high oil prices benefit Kazakhstan, while regional peace and opening let Kaspi expand. At about 7x earnings, its super-app dominance in Central Asia is underappreciated. Its Turkish unit Hepsiburada and resumed dividends add interest. x.comÂ
Kaspi.kz offers MercadoLibre-like growth-at-a-reasonable-price traits at a fraction of the valuation. It has 90%-plus market penetration in one of Central Asia's fastest-growing consumer economies and pays a real dividend. x.comÂ
Kaspi shows that non-AI stocks can still make money, in many cases because AI stocks sucked up so much capital that they were left cheap. Kaspi is an outstanding company and business model with an elite management team, and the stock is up more than 50% since mid-March. x.comÂ
Kaspi.kz and MercadoLibre offer growth that developed markets stopped producing, which is the real case for geographic diversification beyond risk reduction. Kaspi operates where digital banking penetration is still expanding rapidly, and MercadoLibre owns Latin American commerce and payments. Both report earnings next week. x.comÂ
Grab still looks expensive even after CEO Anthony Tan's first open-market share purchase. It trades at 2.5x the valuation multiple of Kaspi.kz, which is the better buy, and foreign currency inflation is an issue. x.com x.comÂ
Occidental Petroleum is mispriced at about 8.4x trailing earnings and an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock. Eight times earnings in an oil shock is not a valuation but a clerical error with a ticker symbol. Iran cannot beat the US Navy, so it is waiting out America's vote in 49 days, since Iran does not vote until 2028; owning Occidental beats hiding in Treasuries. x.comÂ
Targa Resources entered the top group of AI-selected US stocks with a score of 92, as a US oil and gas company with strong technicals and massive net profit growth over the past year. Plays like this will likely also be tied to the length and impact of the Iran war. x.comÂ
US large caps face more downside while the Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, so rallies on negotiation headlines are for selling until the Strait actually reopens. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen five straight weeks as rate-cut hopes collapsed: markets price about a 50% chance of a hike by December, and the 10-year yield hit 4.48%. The Fed is boxed in by oil-driven inflation and Trump's credibility is eroding. Once the Strait reopens, the relief rally should be violent. x.com x.com … Show more
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
Vista Energy grows over 20% yet trades at about 10x earnings, while most big oil companies trade at 20-25x with single-digit growth. It also works as an oil hedge. x.com x.comÂ
Booking Holdings is a great business at a nice discount and one of the best ways to play an end to the war and the reopening of the Middle East, as @vijaythirumalai argues. It is a best-in-class asset-light travel business trading at about 16x earnings with roughly 15% EPS growth and a near-10% free cash flow yield, with limited AI disruption risk, unlike Uber with autonomy. The war has created some overhang. Lower prices would be even better for the long term. x.comÂ
