Late Stage Capitalism
Physician, Long-Term Stock Investor with 30 Years of Experience
Kaspi.kz is an outcome-agnostic play on the Iran conflict: high oil prices benefit Kazakhstan, while regional peace and opening let Kaspi expand. At about 7x earnings, its super-app dominance in Central Asia is underappreciated. Its Turkish unit Hepsiburada and resumed dividends add interest. x.comÂ
Kaspi shows that non-AI stocks can still make money, in many cases because AI stocks sucked up so much capital that they were left cheap. Kaspi is an outstanding company and business model with an elite management team, and the stock is up more than 50% since mid-March. x.comÂ
Grab's projected earnings growth makes its 16.9x next-twelve-month earnings multiple look cheap. Management projects revenue CAGR above 30% and EPS CAGR around 40% through 2028, with Financial Services reaching adjusted EBITDA breakeven in H2 2026 and $500M by 2028. CEO Anthony Tan bought $30M of shares at $2.89, around today's price; Grab's $900M buyback equals 7.5% of market cap. Very few opportunities are as compelling as Grab. x.comÂ
Uber offers more multiple-expansion potential than Grab because it is a globally dominant American business. Grab has higher expected growth, 20% in 2028 versus Uber's 15%, possibly near 30% after the Atome acquisition, and trades at 15x 2028 earnings versus Uber's 13x. Uber's multiple fairly reflects its slower growth, and both are tempting. x.comÂ
Kaspi.kz offers MercadoLibre-like growth-at-a-reasonable-price traits at a fraction of the valuation. It has 90%-plus market penetration in one of Central Asia's fastest-growing consumer economies and pays a real dividend. x.comÂ
Grab offers higher growth than Uber at only a slightly higher multiple. It is expected to grow 20% in 2028 versus 15% for Uber, and could approach 30% after the Atome acquisition, while trading at 15x 2028 earnings versus Uber's 13x. Uber, though, is a globally dominant American business with much higher multiple-expansion potential, making the choice between them close. x.comÂ
Grab's growth now depends on rising spending to retain market share and GMV, a pattern that has persisted for several quarters despite a fairly strong Q1. The stock is also in a long-term downtrend with no inflection in sight, and the rule is to buy only strength or inflections. x.comÂ
Grab looks like a tough near-term hold as oil costs and Indonesia's cap on fees weigh on it. It was expected to report $925M with EPS of $0.02. If it survives 2026 through the first half of 2027, it could have monster years after. x.comÂ
Grab's fundamentals are too strong for it not to return to its 200-week moving average at $4.00, a guaranteed 50% gain from where its CEO bought $30 million of stock at $2.70. Its cash alone equals 40% of its market cap, and fair value is $10, a 330% gain from here. x.comÂ
Kaspi.kz and MercadoLibre offer growth that developed markets stopped producing, which is the real case for geographic diversification beyond risk reduction. Kaspi operates where digital banking penetration is still expanding rapidly, and MercadoLibre owns Latin American commerce and payments. Both report earnings next week. x.comÂ