ThePortablePortfolio
Undercovered Value Investor, EM/AI Infrastructure/Crypto Rails
Kaspi.kz is an under-the-radar super-app serving 20 million people in Kazakhstan across payments, fintech and marketplace, with its Turkey expansion accelerating. It posted 15% revenue growth in Q4 and reinstated its dividend, and most Western investors have never heard of it, which is the whole point. x.comÂ
Kaspi.kz is an outcome-agnostic play on the Iran conflict: high oil prices benefit Kazakhstan, while regional peace and opening let Kaspi expand. At about 7x earnings, its super-app dominance in Central Asia is underappreciated. Its Turkish unit Hepsiburada and resumed dividends add interest. x.comÂ
Today's fundamentals and long growth runways make Nu Holdings and MercadoLibre among the market's most compelling and mispriced opportunities for patient capital. Their short-term outlook shifts mostly with FX volatility and fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty. x.comÂ
Political uncertainty and Amazon competition have held MercadoLibre's stock back despite a humming business. The company is great and the stock deserves to turn, but at roughly 45 times earnings and only about 12% gained over five years, it has remained a difficult stock to own. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre is worth owning for 20 years because its marketplace, payments, credit and advertising reinforce one another, with a long reinvestment runway in underpenetrated Latin American e-commerce and digital finance. Quarterly revenue grew 50% despite its scale, making about 40x earnings very reasonable for its quality. A deep management bench under CEO Ariel Szarfsztejn reduces founder dependence. Risks include credit underwriting, competition from Sea and Amazon, currencies and regulation. … Show more
Latin American equities' sell-off looks overdone as long as the underlying businesses keep growing and fundamentals remain intact. Under that condition, the drop is market noise, and MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings could offer attractive opportunities amid the panic. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
MercadoLibre's commerce and fintech revenue growth underpins the view that its shares are undervalued at current prices. The attached chart shows quarterly commerce services revenue reaching $4.3 billion and fintech revenue $4.4 billion in June 2026, up from $769 million and $467 million in March 2021. x.comÂ
Kaspi shows that non-AI stocks can still make money, in many cases because AI stocks sucked up so much capital that they were left cheap. Kaspi is an outstanding company and business model with an elite management team, and the stock is up more than 50% since mid-March. x.comÂ
MercadoLibre is the backbone of Latin American digital commerce, and its ecosystem keeps feeding its own growth. E-commerce, Mercado Pago payments, credit, logistics and advertising reinforce each other, as more users bring more transactions, more data and better monetization. Execution is elite, with about 39% revenue growth, about 52% free cash flow growth and expanding margins. The valuation is not cheap, but great businesses rarely are, and this is what long-term compounding looks like. … Show more
MercadoLibre seems cheap at roughly 3x enterprise value to sales given revenue is up about 700% while its stock price is back at 2020 levels. It is hard to see how the multiple can keep compressing. x.comÂ