Moody
Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research
Kaspi.kz offers a lot of value at an attractive price, with one of the strongest management teams and an exceptional track record in a critical region. Tencent, the pioneer of super apps, is now one of its largest shareholders, after Mohnish Pabrai took a position, and the CEO and senior managers bought shares too, while Kaspi expands into Türkiye. Patient investors also collect a high dividend, even though there are valid arguments against the company. x.com
Kaspi.kz is an outcome-agnostic play on the Iran conflict: high oil prices benefit Kazakhstan, while regional peace and opening let Kaspi expand. At about 7x earnings, its super-app dominance in Central Asia is underappreciated. Its Turkish unit Hepsiburada and resumed dividends add interest. x.com
Kaspi.kz offers MercadoLibre-like growth-at-a-reasonable-price traits at a fraction of the valuation. It has 90%-plus market penetration in one of Central Asia's fastest-growing consumer economies and pays a real dividend. x.com
Grab still looks expensive even after CEO Anthony Tan's first open-market share purchase. It trades at 2.5x the valuation multiple of Kaspi.kz, which is the better buy, and foreign currency inflation is an issue. x.com x.com
Amazon, along with Nvidia and Tesla, is on a crazy sale given its growth, P/E and future. Investors seem to be selling guaranteed winners like Nvidia and Amazon simply because there are too many opportunities in smaller AI stocks and IPOs, which may amount to a kind of liquidity crunch. x.com x.com
The S&P 500 is unusually vulnerable for the next several years because it is concentrated in richly valued mega-caps forced into an AI arms race. They are committing about $750B to AI in 2026, roughly all their free cash flow, plus equity raises like Google's $85B and about $224B of bonds this year. Much of that becomes a productivity subsidy for the rest of the economy, so active managers can beat the index with smaller firms that benefit without funding it, from suppliers to AI adopters. x.com
Seven quality stocks sit near the bottom of their ranges with nothing actually wrong, forgotten while money piles into AI, semiconductor and memory names. S&P Global is down 19% YTD at its cheapest in five years though revenue nearly doubled. Mastercard grows earnings in the high teens at the bottom of its range, Netflix is 42% off its peak while still growing, and Microsoft, Meta and Uber are 26-31% off highs. Reddit, with 4.4B monthly visitors, is underestimated. Buy while boring and wait. … Show more