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The S&P 500 is unusually vulnerable for the next several years because it is concentrated in richly valued mega-caps forced into an AI arms race. They are committing about $750B to AI in 2026, roughly all their free cash flow, plus equity raises like Google's $85B and about $224B of bonds this year. Much of that becomes a productivity subsidy for the rest of the economy, so active managers can beat the index with smaller firms that benefit without funding it, from suppliers to AI adopters. x.comÂ
