Grab looks like a tough near-term hold as oil costs and Indonesia's cap on fees weigh on it. It was expected to report $925M with EPS of $0.02. If it survives 2026 through the first half of 2027, it could have monster years after. x.comÂ
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Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background
Grab looks set to stay under pressure for now because nearly everyone is underwater and it is tax-loss selling season, though it could make a huge comeback in the years ahead. x.comÂ
Grab may not catch a break anytime soon because of higher oil prices. When oil rises everything else gets pricier, so consumers on limited budgets use rides and food delivery less. The stock trades at the same price as in 2022, which has been miserable for holders. x.com x.comÂ
Funds selling and shorting Grab and Sea to chase chip stocks are a near-term headwind for both core holdings. The trade is tied to the closing of the strait and will keep pressuring the stocks until funds decide that trade is wrong. x.comÂ
Grab's growth now depends on rising spending to retain market share and GMV, a pattern that has persisted for several quarters despite a fairly strong Q1. The stock is also in a long-term downtrend with no inflection in sight, and the rule is to buy only strength or inflections. x.comÂ
Crude oil is headed for heavy oversupply within two years, so the market will look through any short-term supply squeeze. Near-term tightness can still move prices meaningfully, but the market believes there is no real long-term supply problem, which may be why oil equities are not trading at the premium bulls expect. Respect what the market is saying rather than insisting crude should be $250 a barrel. x.com x.comÂ
Grab's projected earnings growth makes its 16.9x next-twelve-month earnings multiple look cheap. Management projects revenue CAGR above 30% and EPS CAGR around 40% through 2028, with Financial Services reaching adjusted EBITDA breakeven in H2 2026 and $500M by 2028. CEO Anthony Tan bought $30M of shares at $2.89, around today's price; Grab's $900M buyback equals 7.5% of market cap. Very few opportunities are as compelling as Grab. x.comÂ
Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
Crude oil faces a return of the glut. Per @JavierBlas, the IEA's first look at 2027 sees too much oil again by this time next year, as Hormuz is expected to reopen, though the agency warns of higher-than-normal uncertainty in its supply and demand forecasts. x.comÂ
Grab is an underrated growth story because it is becoming a full Southeast Asian ecosystem, where each added service makes the platform more valuable to consumers and merchants. Profitability is showing up, with Q4 2025 revenue up 19% and adjusted EBITDA up 54%, its first full-year net profit, and $290M of adjusted free cash flow. Guidance for 20-22% revenue growth and 40-44% EBITDA growth in 2026 signals operating leverage. The open question is whether that scale turns into real free cash flow. … Show more
Targa Resources entered the top group of AI-selected US stocks with a score of 92, as a US oil and gas company with strong technicals and massive net profit growth over the past year. Plays like this will likely also be tied to the length and impact of the Iran war. x.comÂ