Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
Sea Limited and Grab can be huge winners because they are strong Asian companies outside China, and China's punishment of its own companies likely helps them as capitalists excel elsewhere. After the Futu issue in China, Grab moves up to the number-two Asia pick, replacing Hesai, which is highly levered to China, because Grab has no China risk. x.com x.comÂ
Sea looks super interesting at 18x forward EPS against 30%+ EPS CAGR for 2027-2028. Past periods of heavy investment worked well for Sea, making market punishment for new investment exciting. Cloud-entry capex and limited communication, fierce competition, and uncertainty around the fintech IPO remain concerns. x.com x.comÂ
Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.comÂ
Grab looks set to stay under pressure for now because nearly everyone is underwater and it is tax-loss selling season, though it could make a huge comeback in the years ahead. x.comÂ
Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sea Limited's cash generation and sales have risen sharply while its share price is back at its 2020 level. Annual free cash flow moved from negative $100 million to $4.5 billion and revenue from $2.6 billion to $22.9 billion; at $74 versus a Street consensus target above $150, it is a strong buy and undervalued. x.com x.comÂ
Sea, MercadoLibre, Nike and Lululemon have potential but are not buys until a confirmed uptrend forms. A good company is not necessarily a great stock, and a downtrend does not reverse on one earnings beat and a few green weeks. Sea gave back all its post-earnings gains as traders took swings, shorts covered and funds bought, showing it had not bottomed. Investors should hold names already trending, with clear higher highs, and keep these on a watchlist. x.comÂ
Sea could unlock value from its existing fintech and cloud assets, making the selloff look ridiculous. Forrest Li's memo says Monee could stand on its own; a separate listing could give it a valuation and growth capital, though no date or terms are set. Sea Cloud would sell infrastructure already used for Shopee and Garena, not build from scratch. Last-quarter revenue was $7.79B, up almost 50% year over year, against an 18-19 forward P/E. x.com x.comÂ
Sea Limited's revenue growth has far outpaced its market value, making the shares interesting at these levels. Revenue is up 150% since Q1 2022 while market cap is down 25%; a multibagger is possible. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sea Limited isn't worth starting a position in because its pace of investment won't slow, and a quarter of higher investment could bring the stock down fast. It could run in the short term, but the medium-term risk outweighs that until there is clarity on spending. x.comÂ
Institutional accumulation at Grab's current valuation should pressure short sellers as large holders double or triple positions until the stock reaches $10-$12. Swiss National Bank added 1,913,800 shares, a 28.16% increase, to 8.71 million; Baillie Gifford raised its holding to 46,852,163 shares. Short sellers should lose big in 2026-27. x.com x.comÂ