Mike
Long-Term Investor, Technology & Crypto
Institutional accumulation at Grab's current valuation should pressure short sellers as large holders double or triple positions until the stock reaches $10-$12. Swiss National Bank added 1,913,800 shares, a 28.16% increase, to 8.71 million; Baillie Gifford raised its holding to 46,852,163 shares. Short sellers should lose big in 2026-27. x.com x.com
Grab's affordable superapp drove user and cash-flow growth in its softest quarter. Q1 MTUs hit 51.6M, its most important metric; on-demand GMV rose 24% YoY and trailing adjusted FCF hit $489M. The group loan book rose 130% as its expected-credit-loss ratio fell. At 2.5-2.76x forward sales, it looks cheap. Official 2026 guidance of $4.04-$4.10B excludes Stash and foodpanda Taiwan; closing both implies $4.5-$4.8B (33-42% growth). An uncompleted GoTo deal would lift this to $5.24-$5.6B (55.5-66%). x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Funds selling and shorting Grab and Sea to chase chip stocks are a near-term headwind for both core holdings. The trade is tied to the closing of the strait and will keep pressuring the stocks until funds decide that trade is wrong. x.com
Grab's CEO bought $30 million of shares at $2.89, an insider purchase worth following. @Mike_S_222 points to a 4 billion float, but a big float doesn't stop a stock from moving big, as Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia show. x.com x.com
Grab looks set to stay under pressure for now because nearly everyone is underwater and it is tax-loss selling season, though it could make a huge comeback in the years ahead. x.com
Grab's projected earnings growth makes its 16.9x next-twelve-month earnings multiple look cheap. Management projects revenue CAGR above 30% and EPS CAGR around 40% through 2028, with Financial Services reaching adjusted EBITDA breakeven in H2 2026 and $500M by 2028. CEO Anthony Tan bought $30M of shares at $2.89, around today's price; Grab's $900M buyback equals 7.5% of market cap. Very few opportunities are as compelling as Grab. x.com
Grab's fundamentals are too strong for it not to return to its 200-week moving average at $4.00, a guaranteed 50% gain from where its CEO bought $30 million of stock at $2.70. Its cash alone equals 40% of its market cap, and fair value is $10, a 330% gain from here. x.com
Grab's growth now depends on rising spending to retain market share and GMV, a pattern that has persisted for several quarters despite a fairly strong Q1. The stock is also in a long-term downtrend with no inflection in sight, and the rule is to buy only strength or inflections. x.com
Grab's CEO made huge purchases of the stock yesterday, a sign the bottom may be in. x.com
Grab has about 2x potential through FY29/FY30 but not much more: solid, though less exciting than other names. Revenue of about $8B in FY29 at 19% net margins would give $1.52B of net income, or $0.37 EPS on 4.1B shares. About 20x is fair, against Uber at roughly 18x, given its financial-services potential and Southeast Asia risk, implying $7.40, a 130% gain. A recovery play like Snap may have more upside, with more risk. x.com
Grab looks like a tough near-term hold as oil costs and Indonesia's cap on fees weigh on it. It was expected to report $925M with EPS of $0.02. If it survives 2026 through the first half of 2027, it could have monster years after. x.com
Microsoft's record long-term institutional accumulation was the real signal: the largest monthly, weekly and daily volumes ever built up right at the bottom, and the expected short-term flush never came, not even a 10% decline. Short-term bearish speculation was a waste of time. x.com x.com
