Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
Grab's CEO made huge purchases of the stock yesterday, a sign the bottom may be in. x.comÂ
Grab's fundamentals are too strong for it not to return to its 200-week moving average at $4.00, a guaranteed 50% gain from where its CEO bought $30 million of stock at $2.70. Its cash alone equals 40% of its market cap, and fair value is $10, a 330% gain from here. x.comÂ
Grab's growth now depends on rising spending to retain market share and GMV, a pattern that has persisted for several quarters despite a fairly strong Q1. The stock is also in a long-term downtrend with no inflection in sight, and the rule is to buy only strength or inflections. x.comÂ
Grab's CEO buying about $30 million of stock signals management sees the gap between a falling share price and improving execution. Anthony Tan's first open-market purchase since the IPO came below the prior 52-week low, with COO Alex Hungate also buying. Grab trades near a $7 billion enterprise value against guided $4.2 billion revenue and $720-740 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 44-48%. It is no perfect bottom signal, given noisy GAAP profit and Southeast Asian macro pressure. x.comÂ
Grab has about 2x potential through FY29/FY30 but not much more: solid, though less exciting than other names. Revenue of about $8B in FY29 at 19% net margins would give $1.52B of net income, or $0.37 EPS on 4.1B shares. About 20x is fair, against Uber at roughly 18x, given its financial-services potential and Southeast Asia risk, implying $7.40, a 130% gain. A recovery play like Snap may have more upside, with more risk. x.comÂ
Institutional accumulation at Grab's current valuation should pressure short sellers as large holders double or triple positions until the stock reaches $10-$12. Swiss National Bank added 1,913,800 shares, a 28.16% increase, to 8.71 million; Baillie Gifford raised its holding to 46,852,163 shares. Short sellers should lose big in 2026-27. x.com x.comÂ
Grab is building an ecosystem around Southeast Asian consumers' everyday needs, so each customer grows more valuable as they use more services. Q2 monthly transacting users rose 17% to 53.9M, revenue rose 22% to $997M and adjusted EBITDA rose 54% to $168M, while the loan book nearly tripled to $2.3B. The share price has been flat for years despite this. If users, engagement and financial services keep growing, the next 5-10 years could be extraordinary; competition is the main risk. x.comÂ
Grab's high-risk corporate structure, a complex web of ownership controlling its companies in each country, means it can never be more than a Tier 3 company, and that discount is what makes it a promising company at a cheap value. x.comÂ
Coupang looks like a long-term buy on a typical reversal pattern coupled with a large insider purchase. Per @BourbonInsider, a director just bought 7M shares for about $136.6M at prices of $18.48 to $19. x.comÂ