Chris
Engineer & Entrepreneur, Equity/Crypto Swing Trader, Macro & Trade Setups
Grab's CEO bought $30 million of shares at $2.89, an insider purchase worth following. @Mike_S_222 points to a 4 billion float, but a big float doesn't stop a stock from moving big, as Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia show. x.com x.comÂ
Grab's fundamentals are too strong for it not to return to its 200-week moving average at $4.00, a guaranteed 50% gain from where its CEO bought $30 million of stock at $2.70. Its cash alone equals 40% of its market cap, and fair value is $10, a 330% gain from here. x.comÂ
Grab's growth now depends on rising spending to retain market share and GMV, a pattern that has persisted for several quarters despite a fairly strong Q1. The stock is also in a long-term downtrend with no inflection in sight, and the rule is to buy only strength or inflections. x.comÂ
Grab's CEO buying about $30 million of stock signals management sees the gap between a falling share price and improving execution. Anthony Tan's first open-market purchase since the IPO came below the prior 52-week low, with COO Alex Hungate also buying. Grab trades near a $7 billion enterprise value against guided $4.2 billion revenue and $720-740 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 44-48%. It is no perfect bottom signal, given noisy GAAP profit and Southeast Asian macro pressure. x.comÂ
Grab has about 2x potential through FY29/FY30 but not much more: solid, though less exciting than other names. Revenue of about $8B in FY29 at 19% net margins would give $1.52B of net income, or $0.37 EPS on 4.1B shares. About 20x is fair, against Uber at roughly 18x, given its financial-services potential and Southeast Asia risk, implying $7.40, a 130% gain. A recovery play like Snap may have more upside, with more risk. x.comÂ
Grab looks set to stay under pressure for now because nearly everyone is underwater and it is tax-loss selling season, though it could make a huge comeback in the years ahead. x.comÂ
Grab is a long-term accumulation candidate as a dominant, profitable and growing Southeast Asia super-app still down over 40% from its highs despite a beat. Revenue of $955 million, EPS of $0.04 and EBITDA of $154 million all topped estimates, and its market cap is $14.84 billion. The trend is still down, so patience is required; a weekly close above $4.00 would confirm a reversal. x.comÂ
Institutional accumulation at Grab's current valuation should pressure short sellers as large holders double or triple positions until the stock reaches $10-$12. Swiss National Bank added 1,913,800 shares, a 28.16% increase, to 8.71 million; Baillie Gifford raised its holding to 46,852,163 shares. Short sellers should lose big in 2026-27. x.com x.comÂ
Grab looks like a tough near-term hold as oil costs and Indonesia's cap on fees weigh on it. It was expected to report $925M with EPS of $0.02. If it survives 2026 through the first half of 2027, it could have monster years after. x.comÂ
Grab's high-risk corporate structure, a complex web of ownership controlling its companies in each country, means it can never be more than a Tier 3 company, and that discount is what makes it a promising company at a cheap value. x.comÂ