Uber is one of the most interesting opportunities in the market, down 31% from its highs while printing more cash. The market treats it as a low-margin business that autonomous driving could disrupt, missing its real moat: distribution. A network of consumers, drivers and merchants is very hard to replicate and lets it add verticals without paying acquisition costs again. Uber also owns about 13% of Grab, down 85% and building financial services on the same model. x.com 

Uber offers more multiple-expansion potential than Grab because it is a globally dominant American business. Grab has higher expected growth, 20% in 2028 versus Uber's 15%, possibly near 30% after the Atome acquisition, and trades at 15x 2028 earnings versus Uber's 13x. Uber's multiple fairly reflects its slower growth, and both are tempting. x.com 

Grab's projected earnings growth makes its 16.9x next-twelve-month earnings multiple look cheap. Management projects revenue CAGR above 30% and EPS CAGR around 40% through 2028, with Financial Services reaching adjusted EBITDA breakeven in H2 2026 and $500M by 2028. CEO Anthony Tan bought $30M of shares at $2.89, around today's price; Grab's $900M buyback equals 7.5% of market cap. Very few opportunities are as compelling as Grab. x.com 

Uber, DoorDash and Lyft face pressure as soaring gas prices crush their drivers. With oil above $100, gas could double from $3 to $6 a gallon for drivers who barely make minimum wage. Many financed their cars through Carvana, so defaults are coming. x.com 

Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.com 

Grab offers higher growth than Uber at only a slightly higher multiple. It is expected to grow 20% in 2028 versus 15% for Uber, and could approach 30% after the Atome acquisition, while trading at 15x 2028 earnings versus Uber's 13x. Uber, though, is a globally dominant American business with much higher multiple-expansion potential, making the choice between them close. x.com 

Higher transport and input costs threaten US stock margins and demand. The PPI surprise shows the oil-cost pressure described in March playing out: headline rose 1.3% monthly versus 0.6% expected, and core 0.7% versus 0.3%. The March scenario put logistics costs at 3-6 weeks and consumer prices and weaker demand at 1-3 months; margins could shrink 100-300 basis points if costs cannot be passed on. The full scenario was not expected to play out. x.com  x.com 

Grab looks like a tough near-term hold as oil costs and Indonesia's cap on fees weigh on it. It was expected to report $925M with EPS of $0.02. If it survives 2026 through the first half of 2027, it could have monster years after. x.com 

Grab operates in a region with extremely high entry barriers: Uber, Lyft and Tesla robotaxis are not in Southeast Asia and are not coming. It has moved beyond ride hailing and food delivery into an everything app, and people in the region trust it a lot. A company that keeps pushing numbers up, holds 3.5 times more cash than its debt and liabilities, generates positive free cash flow and has such barriers should be rewarded by markets. x.com  x.com 

Consumer-facing stocks remain vulnerable as even middle and upper-middle income shoppers pull back. Dave & Buster's fell 15% on ongoing "entertainment weakness", dragging the sector including Texas Roadhouse. Dollar General said at a Goldman conference that customers across income cohorts are somewhat distressed, with middle to upper-middle shoppers acting like lower-income ones. Diesel near $7 and gasoline near $4.50 add about $700M a day in fuel costs versus a year ago. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more