Charles Edwards
Founder of Capriole Investments, Digital-Asset Investing
The Iran war could be a huge catalyst for US energy stocks as energy independence becomes a necessity rather than a luxury. Nuclear names Constellation Energy, Vistra, Centrus and Cameco combine energy security with massive AI power demand, while natural-gas names Cheniere, EQT and Antero gain from LNG demand and tighter global supply. x.comÂ
Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.comÂ
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
The Iran war, rising oil prices and inflationary pressure do not yet look severe enough to trigger a major economic crisis. Despite some deterioration in the macro picture and short-term volatility, the broader picture remains relatively healthy and the long-term outlook for US large-cap and Nasdaq 100 stocks is very positive. x.comÂ
US stocks should find support in October as escorted Gulf oil shipments ease oil-driven pressure on yields while AI fundamentals stay strong. Tankers crossing Hormuz under US escort have restored at least 60% of prewar crude flows, weakening oil's upside. At 5.33%, 10-year yields may stabilize; per Bloomberg data, yields would need to hit about 6% to erase a year of bond returns. Q3 cloud earnings should be very strong, and if yields settle, gains could spread to banks and small caps. x.com … Show more
Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
US energy stocks EQT, EOG Resources, natural-gas producers and Exxon still deserve attention even at current levels, because the Iran conflict will last longer than the administration is communicating. Iran may have created a permanent toll booth for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving President Trump in a bind even if he backs down. @aleabitoreddit notes oil and LNG exporters could run further if tensions escalate. x.comÂ
US energy stocks stand to benefit from the Strait of Hormuz closure. With Hormuz closed, energy stocks are open for business. x.comÂ
Railroads and energy stocks, a heavy-asset, low-obsolescence trade, work as a barbell to AI bottleneck names and are holding up in the selloff. Devon Energy, ConocoPhillips, Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific showed green in a sea of red. x.comÂ
Battery and solar stocks like T1 Energy, FuelCell Energy, Fluence, Ford, Nextracker and First Solar are a short-term trade on unusual technical strength and large call option flows. The cause is unclear; the guess is that investors expect an energy shift away from oil and gas after the Iran war, with solar and batteries the most viable options and nuclear seen as a costly 2030s dream. Per Chris Wright's interview, the Trump administration is unblocking nuclear rules, so nuclear is tradable too. … Show more