Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hyperscaler credit stress and weak financials-versus-staples leadership warn of downside risk in the S&P 500 consolidation. Spreads have broken July wides, though an upside breakout is probable if financials stabilize. So far, tech weakness has lowered yields as Fed hikes are priced out, letting defensives rally and the S&P chop. If the Fed signals Nasdaq weakness won't stop tightening without better data, the tech-yield link could break in an uncomfortable, 2018-like direction. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Rising inflation, costlier AI infrastructure financing and growing Iran escalation risk point to the final major S&P 500 correction before the biggest phase of the AI boom. The index is near its 125-day average; its last break below in March was followed by another 10% drop. Keep cash ready: the next sell-off will create generational buying opportunities as neoclouds and hyperscalers turn infrastructure spending into explosive revenue and earnings growth. x.com 

US stocks can keep rising even as yields climb, because corporate earnings growth far outpaces inflation. In 1994, bond yields rose 263 basis points while earnings grew 18%; the S&P 500 went flat, then 1995 brought one of the greatest bull runs ever. Today rates are up 100 basis points against 32% earnings growth, and real GDP growth could reach 7%. Earnings and inflation drive stocks and bonds, not the other way around. x.com 

Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com  x.com 

Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.com 

The Iran war, rising oil prices and inflationary pressure do not yet look severe enough to trigger a major economic crisis. Despite some deterioration in the macro picture and short-term volatility, the broader picture remains relatively healthy and the long-term outlook for US large-cap and Nasdaq 100 stocks is very positive. x.com 

Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com  x.com 

Expensive borrowing makes debt-funded AI projects harder to justify, pressuring AI stocks and the S&P 500. Inflation keeps pressure on rates. If Republicans lose Congress after the midterms, Trump could rely on executive action to speed permits, power projects and existing funding programs, keeping AI investment moving despite expensive money. Tech and risk assets could catch a bid if earnings hold and bond yields settle; Fed cuts remain uncertain. x.com 

US large-cap stocks broke above 7,800 for the first time mainly because rate-hike fears eased, and the setup stays bullish while rates and earnings cooperate. Payrolls fell 23K versus +83K expected, CPI held at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, and September hike odds fell from ~50% to ~35%, which matters with stock-yield correlation near its most negative since 1996. Earnings are tracking ~28% growth, but leadership is narrow; oil near $81, Hormuz risk and a shrinking workforce are cracks to watch. … Show more