S&P 500 earnings are keeping pace with prices, so this does not look like a bubble. Quarterly earnings are on track to grow 29.5%, more than twice the 10-year average of 12.6%, while the 18.7 forward P/E is just below its 19.1 decade average. x.com 

US large caps are about to make another all-time high because weak jobs numbers rule out Fed hikes and have changed the rate path. The data looks bearish but is bullish for that reason. More broadly, stocks have real underlying fundamentals, and their gains have largely been justified by record growth and earnings, though there will still be booms and busts. x.com  x.com 

US equities look vulnerable to a significant correction before another sustainable rally: 3.4% inflation, roughly $100 Brent, a 5.2% 10-year yield and just 29K new September jobs contrast with fresh index highs, while the Magnificent 7 make up 34.9% of the S&P 500. Strong AI earnings expectations and liquidity could keep shares elevated longer than expected. x.com 

US stocks benefit when rates rise with growth because earnings outpace the drag from higher discount rates. Such periods have historically been very bullish, unlike inflation-led rate rises amid slowing growth. Since fall 2025 the 10-year yield rose from 4.1% to 5.1% while nominal GDP growth accelerated to 6.6%, faster than rates. Being long offers better risk/reward; high oil prices due to the war are the remaining inflation pressure, and an end to the war would improve the setup further. x.com 

Hyperscaler credit stress and weak financials-versus-staples leadership warn of downside risk in the S&P 500 consolidation. Spreads have broken July wides, though an upside breakout is probable if financials stabilize. So far, tech weakness has lowered yields as Fed hikes are priced out, letting defensives rally and the S&P chop. If the Fed signals Nasdaq weakness won't stop tightening without better data, the tech-yield link could break in an uncomfortable, 2018-like direction. x.com  x.com  … Show more

The S&P 500 rally is a concentration bet because earnings growth is coming from very few companies, while AI productivity gains are not spreading across the broader economy. Nvidia and Micron drive 34% of expected Q3 earnings growth, and ten companies account for two-thirds. Apollo's revenue-per-worker chart shows gains for the Magnificent Seven but little for the other 493 S&P 500 companies; most stocks that reflect the broader economy are down. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Broader participation, earnings growth and lower multiples support US equities into year-end, with seasonality also favorable. The equal-weight S&P rose 1.95% this week while the cap-weighted index slipped 0.05%; EPS is up 38% so far and multiples are down 17% year to date. The 10-year yield fell 41 basis points. x.com 

US stocks should find support in October as escorted Gulf oil shipments ease oil-driven pressure on yields while AI fundamentals stay strong. Tankers crossing Hormuz under US escort have restored at least 60% of prewar crude flows, weakening oil's upside. At 5.33%, 10-year yields may stabilize; per Bloomberg data, yields would need to hit about 6% to erase a year of bond returns. Q3 cloud earnings should be very strong, and if yields settle, gains could spread to banks and small caps. x.com  … Show more

US large-cap equities are vulnerable because earnings have not caught up with total market capitalization. The market is farther from its 200-week moving average than at any point in 18 years, and cracks are starting to show; staying bullish ignores these risks. Rate hikes remain possible, oil is still high, and yields may climb again, so now is the time for caution. x.com  x.com 

Strong corporate profit margins may make the S&P 500 better value than traditional P/E ratios suggest, despite elevated stock prices. Per Bloomberg, its P/E-to-profitability ratio is at its lowest in nearly 14 years, last seen around 2012. Wall Street might be overlooking something important. x.com