Ferrovial's drop after UBS's downgrade looks overdone, as its toll roads raise prices into demand and its new $9.2B I-24 win likely beats UBS's 7% IRR model. The 407 ETR in Toronto, 48.29% owned and leased to 2098, sets its own rates: Q2 revenue rose 18% and EBITDA 24% on 3% fewer trips. Its Texas managed lanes earned high-teens IRRs, and UBS concedes I-24's pricing is better. UBS's €59 target still implies about 9% upside. Risks are higher yields, weak returns on new bids and autonomous cars. x.com x.com x.com




