Management's clarification of Ferrovial's I-24 project economics should remove a major credibility overhang. That adds a potential catalyst to the earlier case that the stock was dislocated as investors avoided long-duration quality names. x.com
Arrakis Global
Global Thematic Fund Manager
Ferrovial looks dislocated because investors do not want to hold long-duration, boring quality names. That makes leaning into duration worthwhile here. An attached analyst excerpt estimates that even losing all equity in its I-24 project would cost €2-3 per share under its assumptions, versus a roughly €9 share-price decline; earlier payments could raise the estimated cost. x.com