Alexander Bittan
Long-Term Frontier-Technology Investor, Neuralink/Anduril/Perplexity
Rivian is positioned to be second only to Tesla in consumer autonomy, and R2 deliveries have finally begun. Self-driving is becoming real for those with the data and compute, Uber recently struck a deal with Rivian, and no automaker outside Tesla and Rivian has vertically integrated as far. It won't be a profitable machine soon, but the coming quarters will show whether R2 has its Model 3/Y moment, and after an 18% drop on dilution news a $20 billion valuation looks worth holding. x.com
Rivian's outlook now depends on R2 adoption, after another offering of about 6.3% dilution that adds roughly $1.4 billion to its coffers. Rivian also pre-announced a Q2 revenue beat alongside the offering. x.com x.com
Tesla's distraction with merging with SpaceX makes Rivian a great buy here. x.com
Rivian's R2 is going to flop, because once a carmaker goes low cost it is game over. Rivian is burning massive cash while the auto market weakens fast on rates and inflation, and its $21B market cap should be closer to Lucid's. x.com
Rivian's Q3 results appear to have crushed expectations, adding a record revenue quarter to its growth case. At first glance, revenue was $2.16B versus $2B estimated, and the loss was $0.48 per share versus $0.74 estimated. x.com
Rivian's chart is growing more bullish as Uber invests up to $1.25 billion in the company, though the stock is still battling high-time-frame resistance. A post the author replies to notes that resistance looks to be weakening. x.com x.com
Rivian's appeal depends on full self-driving, and its premium R1S is not targeted for FSD, which makes premium EV pricing hard to justify. CEO RJ Scaringe is smartly aiming FSD at the mass-market R2. The stock could take off, but only if a semi-capable FSD arrives on the R2 rather than on the strength of the vehicle itself. x.com
Rivian's move from its $80K R1 into a $45K mid-priced SUV is the best brand-leverage opportunity right now and could significantly expand its addressable market. Rivian built its brand for quality and reliability on the R1 and R1T, much as Tesla established Models S and X before Model 3 and Y took off in 2017-2019. The risk is that going downmarket stretches the brand too far or drives premium customers away. x.com x.com
Rivian trades well below newly raised analyst targets after lifting its 2026 delivery outlook. Full-year guidance is now 65,000-70,000 vehicles, more than 30% growth, as R2 SUV deliveries began and the model drew a record 57,000 demo drives. Piper Sandler upgraded to $20, Deutsche Bank moved to $24 and TD Cowen raised to $21, against a $16.97 share price. R2 Premium arrives in late 2026, with the standard trim following in 2027. x.com
Rivian is underweight with a $9 December 2026 target because its $16.50 price assumes the R2 ramp, positive gross margins and Volkswagen money all arrive on time. Its 62,000–67,000 delivery guidance needs H2 quarterly deliveries to nearly double during the R2 launch. $6.1B of cash plus $2B from Volkswagen gives runway, but year-end cash hinges on execution; missing positive gross margins, guided for end-2026, by a quarter means dilution, by two a restructuring. Volkswagen limits the downside. … Show more
Rivian's weekly upside case rests on aggressive call buying. Its October 30 $12 calls showed about 5,230 contracts filled at the ask in one burst, with $282,200 in premium. x.com
