Rivian is next in line for trouble once investors stop funding its cash-burning business. Lucid's stock fell 48% to an all-time low after a report that it is considering going private or filing for Chapter 11; Lucid had not commented. x.com 

Rivian has yet to prove it can build cars profitably, and its self-driving effort is far more than two years behind Tesla's, a total dealbreaker. That rebuts @calistoker123's case that R2 is the second-best US EV and that Rivian, at a $23 billion market cap, could deserve $100 billion if it executes on R2, R3 and self-driving. x.com 

Rivian's Q3 results appear to have crushed expectations, adding a record revenue quarter to its growth case. At first glance, revenue was $2.16B versus $2B estimated, and the loss was $0.48 per share versus $0.74 estimated. x.com 

Rivian's plan to scale cost-efficient R2 and R3 models is unlikely to work well. Steady-state demand and price point remain unproven, an $85K loss per car is a large hole to climb out of, and even if all of that goes well it has no path to Level 4 self-driving. x.com  x.com 

Rivian is underweight with a $9 December 2026 target because its $16.50 price assumes the R2 ramp, positive gross margins and Volkswagen money all arrive on time. Its 62,000–67,000 delivery guidance needs H2 quarterly deliveries to nearly double during the R2 launch. $6.1B of cash plus $2B from Volkswagen gives runway, but year-end cash hinges on execution; missing positive gross margins, guided for end-2026, by a quarter means dilution, by two a restructuring. Volkswagen limits the downside. … Show more

Rivian is positioned to be second only to Tesla in consumer autonomy, and R2 deliveries have finally begun. Self-driving is becoming real for those with the data and compute, Uber recently struck a deal with Rivian, and no automaker outside Tesla and Rivian has vertically integrated as far. It won't be a profitable machine soon, but the coming quarters will show whether R2 has its Model 3/Y moment, and after an 18% drop on dilution news a $20 billion valuation looks worth holding. x.com 

Lucid is dead money as the EV hype cycle and subsidy tailwinds fade, especially under the Trump administration. Tesla is the only dominant EV player, and Rivian may survive long term only with near-flawless execution; everything else, including Lucid, is dead money. x.com 

Rivian will follow Lucid toward bankruptcy because none of these EV companies can make a profitable vehicle. Lucid's stock crashed 30% in 30 minutes on bankruptcy reports, which Lucid denies. x.com  x.com 

Rivian's weekly upside case rests on aggressive call buying. Its October 30 $12 calls showed about 5,230 contracts filled at the ask in one burst, with $282,200 in premium. x.com 

Rivian's appeal depends on full self-driving, and its premium R1S is not targeted for FSD, which makes premium EV pricing hard to justify. CEO RJ Scaringe is smartly aiming FSD at the mass-market R2. The stock could take off, but only if a semi-capable FSD arrives on the R2 rather than on the strength of the vehicle itself. x.com