Rivian's R2 is going to flop, because once a carmaker goes low cost it is game over. Rivian is burning massive cash while the auto market weakens fast on rates and inflation, and its $21B market cap should be closer to Lucid's. x.com 

Rivian is next in line for trouble once investors stop funding its cash-burning business. Lucid's stock fell 48% to an all-time low after a report that it is considering going private or filing for Chapter 11; Lucid had not commented. x.com 

Tesla's distraction with merging with SpaceX makes Rivian a great buy here. x.com 

Rivian and Lucid are adding supply into a US EV market facing demand destruction and rising interest rates, which pressure prices and demand further. Cox Automotive reports US EV sales dropped dramatically over the past two quarters after the tax credit ended, and buyers are already trending to combustion vehicles. That mix makes both stocks unattractive to own. x.com 

Tesla's falling automotive revenue and shrinking energy business undermine its growth-company case. In Q3 2026, automotive revenue fell 3% year over year and energy revenue fell 16%; operating margin was 2.6%, and revenue missed expectations. These numbers are pathetic even for a mature business and embarrassing for a growth darling. SpaceX has to buy Tesla to mask a weak business inside a stronger one, as Musk did with SolarCity. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Repeated promises without timely delivery make Tesla and SpaceX unattractive to own. Roadster is years late, Tesla Semi mass production has been repeatedly delayed, Optimus and Cybercab deployment trails promises, and Mars colonization deadlines have slipped. Tesla's auto margins and profits are under pressure. Execution matters more than hype. x.com 

Tesla's car business is ex-growth and in decline, and its financial numbers are dire. Per the Q3 earnings breakdown quoted in the post, total revenue was flat, automotive revenue fell 3% year over year, net income fell 43% and free cash flow fell 62%. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's operating profit keeps shrinking even as revenue rebounds, making it look like a weak cyclical automaker. S&P Capital IQ shows 2025 revenue falling 2.9% to $94.8 billion and EBIT dropping from $7.7 billion in 2024 to $4.4 billion in 2025; latest twelve-month revenue reaches $103.6 billion while EBIT falls further to $3.1 billion. x.com 

Tesla's $1.4T valuation prices in absolute perfection and leaves too little headroom to outperform the market over the next few years. Robotaxis, FSD, Optimus, AI and energy storage are exciting, but the share price pays now for what may be achievable in a decade. Tesla makes half Ford's free cash flow, and Uber earns more than double its net income at about a tenth of the value. Car sales peaked in 2022-23 as Chinese automakers ended growth, so it is unclear where the cash comes from. x.com  … Show more

Rivian has yet to prove it can build cars profitably, and its self-driving effort is far more than two years behind Tesla's, a total dealbreaker. That rebuts @calistoker123's case that R2 is the second-best US EV and that Rivian, at a $23 billion market cap, could deserve $100 billion if it executes on R2, R3 and self-driving. x.com