Gali
Startup Investor at HyperGuap, Technology Investing, HyperChange
Rivian has yet to prove it can build cars profitably, and its self-driving effort is far more than two years behind Tesla's, a total dealbreaker. That rebuts @calistoker123's case that R2 is the second-best US EV and that Rivian, at a $23 billion market cap, could deserve $100 billion if it executes on R2, R3 and self-driving. x.comÂ
Rivian's plan to scale cost-efficient R2 and R3 models is unlikely to work well. Steady-state demand and price point remain unproven, an $85K loss per car is a large hole to climb out of, and even if all of that goes well it has no path to Level 4 self-driving. x.com x.comÂ
Rivian's R2 is going to flop, because once a carmaker goes low cost it is game over. Rivian is burning massive cash while the auto market weakens fast on rates and inflation, and its $21B market cap should be closer to Lucid's. x.comÂ
Tesla's distraction with merging with SpaceX makes Rivian a great buy here. x.comÂ
Rivian is unappealing, as 37% whale accumulation on its monthly chart explains the stock's lack of price momentum. x.comÂ
Rivian's appeal depends on full self-driving, and its premium R1S is not targeted for FSD, which makes premium EV pricing hard to justify. CEO RJ Scaringe is smartly aiming FSD at the mass-market R2. The stock could take off, but only if a semi-capable FSD arrives on the R2 rather than on the strength of the vehicle itself. x.comÂ
Rivian is positioned to be second only to Tesla in consumer autonomy, and R2 deliveries have finally begun. Self-driving is becoming real for those with the data and compute, Uber recently struck a deal with Rivian, and no automaker outside Tesla and Rivian has vertically integrated as far. It won't be a profitable machine soon, but the coming quarters will show whether R2 has its Model 3/Y moment, and after an 18% drop on dilution news a $20 billion valuation looks worth holding. x.comÂ
Repeated promises without timely delivery make Tesla and SpaceX unattractive to own. Roadster is years late, Tesla Semi mass production has been repeatedly delayed, Optimus and Cybercab deployment trails promises, and Mars colonization deadlines have slipped. Tesla's auto margins and profits are under pressure. Execution matters more than hype. x.comÂ
Rivian will follow Lucid toward bankruptcy because none of these EV companies can make a profitable vehicle. Lucid's stock crashed 30% in 30 minutes on bankruptcy reports, which Lucid denies. x.com x.comÂ
Rivian's Q3 results appear to have crushed expectations, adding a record revenue quarter to its growth case. At first glance, revenue was $2.16B versus $2B estimated, and the loss was $0.48 per share versus $0.74 estimated. x.comÂ
Rivian is next in line for trouble once investors stop funding its cash-burning business. Lucid's stock fell 48% to an all-time low after a report that it is considering going private or filing for Chapter 11; Lucid had not commented. x.comÂ
