Tesla's falling automotive revenue and shrinking energy business undermine its growth-company case. In Q3 2026, automotive revenue fell 3% year over year and energy revenue fell 16%; operating margin was 2.6%, and revenue missed expectations. These numbers are pathetic even for a mature business and embarrassing for a growth darling. SpaceX has to buy Tesla to mask a weak business inside a stronger one, as Musk did with SolarCity. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's Roadster presentation looks more like a stunt than a credible product rollout, leaving the stock vulnerable when the market recognizes the hype as a scam. The Roadster was announced in 2017 with deliveries originally slated for 2020; per Yahoo Finance, Musk now says production starts in 2028. The event may also be a coverup ahead of earnings. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's engineering culture is still its biggest moat, and the low-volume Roadster could give it a huge marketing halo. The presentation also points to a powerful Tesla-SpaceX connection; robotics, AI and Full Self-Driving could make Tesla's future bigger than most investors realize. The car may arrive in 2028, but the narrative arrived last night. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's stagnant car business and rising AI and robotics spending are squeezing current earnings before those bets have paid off. Q3 revenue was flat as auto sales slipped and regulatory credits collapsed; operating expenses rose 39%, operating income fell 56%, and EPS dropped from $0.43 to $0.24. The spend-now, profit-later strategy is testing investors' patience. x.com 

Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus can carry substantial value before major profits because future cash flows, growth and the chance of success matter more than current P/E. In an illustrative model, a one-year delay cuts opportunity value about 11% if payments stay unchanged; faster sustained growth can more than offset it, while reliable deployment can raise the assessed chance of success. These figures are not Tesla forecasts; investment costs and execution risk still matter. x.com 

Tesla's Cybercab and Optimus may end like Elon Musk's past grand projects, the Solar Roof, Roadster, Semi and Boring tunnels, so their true rollout should come before any belief. Musk may need the stock hammered by 90% to wake up. x.com 

Tesla's FSD attachment figures leave durable paid demand unclear because retention three to six months after the free trial is unknown. Some analysts estimate effective attachment at 30%-40%, and CFO Taneja's selective answers breed skepticism. Management's aspirational targets alone cannot justify Tesla's 175x 2027 P/E and 73x 2027 EV/EBITDA; competitors' actions, customer feedback and supplier activity also matter. Negative earnings revisions and commoditizing autonomy sustain caution. x.com  … Show more

SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's latest reveal has no financial viability for shareholders yet because anything like it may not reach roads before 2035. Like Optimus in 2021, it is cool but not viable yet. SpaceX shareholders should get Tesla at a bargain after Tesla takes a serious beating: Musk owns 49% of SpaceX and already controls its vote, so a depressed acquisition price would give them a better deal while consolidating his control. The merger looks like a matter of when, not if; its price is the question. x.com  … Show more