GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Enphase looks expensive against its earnings, at 35x trailing and 16x next year's versus about 8x for solar companies. Applying 8x to next year's $2.27 EPS gives fair value of roughly $16.50-$21, and the stock trades 69% above the top of that range. The valuation leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 125% above trailing. This is a levels-only read from reported earnings and estimates, without fundamental work. x.comÂ
Enphase's US home-solar demand still has not stabilized, delaying its potential home-power recovery to 2027. Q4 revenue guidance of $225-255M is about 20% below the Street at the midpoint, and guided gross margin falls to 40-43% from 45%. Higher electricity costs from AI demand could eventually favor homes generating and storing power; its IQ Battery 5G stores about 50% more energy and costs about 40% less to make. The next two quarters look tough. x.com x.comÂ
Enphase Energy's declining revenue and EPS make the stock's hype unwarranted. If it cannot perform during the most severe energy shortage in decades, it is hard to see when it will. x.comÂ
Enphase could squeeze higher as fuel-cell and battery names reprice after Nebius signed a deal with Bloom Energy. Citrini previously flagged Enphase for its high short exposure, and the next resistance appears only around the $120s. x.comÂ
Enphase is still a business in contraction: Q2's sequential improvement came almost entirely from safe-harbor shipments booked ahead of tax-credit deadlines, not returning end demand. Those deals pull volume forward, and a tariff refund after the Supreme Court voided IEEPA tariffs flattered GAAP results one time. US revenue, the large majority, is still shrinking. The IQ Solid-State Transformer is an interesting second act, but one clean demand-driven quarter is needed first. x.comÂ
Enphase is asking for a re-rate before transforming its business, which fundamentally does not work. It sells rooftop hardware to homeowners who just lost the tax credit, and Q1 revenue fell 20% year on year. Its GaN and custom-ASIC power platform for AI is credible engineering, but volume is not until 2028 and the solid-state transformer has zero named customers. Management saying investors value it wrong is the label trying to go first; utility-scale T1 Energy is preferred in solar. x.comÂ
Enphase and SolarEdge, dead home-solar stocks, have a credible path through a pivot to solid-state transformers, which @tailrisked calls the future of grid technology. It remains a very speculative play warranting only small positions. x.comÂ
First Solar is the only non-impaired Western solar manufacturer, yet the category leader trades at historically low multiples against its own past and relatively low multiples against basically everything else in the market. Buying it at those valuations is a gift; it looks like a dinger. x.comÂ
First Solar is one of ten stocks featured in a thread. x.comÂ
SolarEdge and Enphase are both best positioned for solid-state transformers, and both are mid-term accumulation candidates, with no preference yet between them. Per a post the author replies to, Enphase uses Infineon's GaN bidirectional switches for its SST. Their charts suggest the monster move can continue. x.com x.comÂ
Intuitive Surgical is worth 30 times earnings at most, below where it trades. Judged purely on its financials, without knowing what the company does, even 30 times would be too high. x.comÂ
