Johan Ekroth
AI Infrastructure/Space/Defense Investor, Bottleneck Research
Ideal Power's 800V data-center case gains a named commercial partner in Lazzen, which is building B-TRAN-enabled products for AI data centers. Per @TheBullWhisper's find, the 1-2% figure in investor materials captures only conduction losses, so the system-level impact may be larger once cooling and rack density are counted. @TheBullWhisper adds that its value could be far bigger if it wins hyperscaler designs. x.comÂ
Ideal Power is a small, early bet on the 800V DC data-center power shift, where Nvidia and GE Vernova's reference design explicitly names solid-state DC breakers. Its B-TRAN bidirectional switch targets those breakers, and on May 14 it disclosed an LOI to co-develop a prototype for a US hyperscaler adopting Nvidia's Rubin Ultra 800V architecture, with delivery targeted for Q4 2026. Stellantis has already approved B-TRAN orders. But an LOI is not a design-in, and revenue is near zero. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Ideal Power's B-TRAN switch fits the solid-state breakers required in Nvidia's 800V DC racks, an overlooked chokepoint. At 800V DC, mechanical breakers are too slow to stop fault arcs; B-TRAN is one two-way switch instead of two, wasting about a quarter of the energy. A May 14 LOI covers a prototype for a US hyperscaler, due end-2026, with a possible 2027 ramp. With $0 revenue, it is a lottery ticket on that turning into repeat orders, with $16M+ cash and no debt cushioning the downside. x.comÂ
Ideal Power fits SemiAnalysis's 800VDC data center thesis: its patented B-TRAN bidirectional switch powers solid-state circuit breakers, the protection technology SemiAnalysis calls critical because DC arcs do not self-extinguish. With its Q1 2026 results, it reported signing an LOI to co-develop a B-TRAN-enabled breaker prototype for a US hyperscaler. At a $135m market cap, the upside is asymmetric if the company executes. x.comÂ
Per Truist, AI data center capacity grows from 24GW to 100GW by 2030, and every watt must be converted, stored and cooled before a GPU runs, paying firms between grid and chip. DC-DC conversion is the layer to watch, as rising density makes each efficiency point worth more: Monolithic Power, Vicor, Infineon, TI, Analog Devices, Renesas, onsemi. Panasonic appears in six layers and Delta in four, paid more than once per rack. Eaton, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Schneider and ABB bring power in. x.comÂ
AI data-center spending should reach chips first, then racks, power and cooling, benefiting Nvidia, AMD, Vertiv, Bloom Energy, Credo, Marvell, Lumentum and Micron. BofA forecasts the global data-center market at about $1T in 2026, $2.1T in 2028 and nearly $3T by 2030, a 37% annual rise; roughly 80% of a new AI site's $57M per MW cost goes to servers, networking and storage. x.comÂ
Ideal Power has de-risked somewhat, though a delay in Stellantis automotive certification argues for waiting weeks or months. It signed a long-term supply agreement with a high-volume Asian wafer foundry where functional B-TRAN first silicon is already made, at a cost it says supports gross margins at scale. It also got a first stocking order for its 800V solid-state circuit breaker kit, a first revenue signal, and holds $41.3M of cash with no debt and about four years of runway. x.com x.com … Show more
Ideal Power's gap between almost no revenue and a ~$100M valuation is the opportunity, if it turns a test project into repeat orders. Its bidirectional switch replaces two one-way parts and wastes about a quarter of the energy in always-on jobs like breakers, which AI data centers and grids moving to 800V need by the millions. Its pipeline rose from $200M to $300M in a quarter, a big breaker maker signed a multiyear deal, and a hyperscaler will test it in Nvidia's 800V racks. No orders yet. … Show more
Vertiv's power and cooling gear is benefiting from the AI data-center build-out. Q3 net sales rose 61%, operating profit 90% and net income 92%. There is no more direct picks-and-shovels bet on AI infrastructure than Vertiv. Grade: A. x.comÂ
Vertiv should be a net winner in power content per megawatt as AI racks move to 800V DC. The shift will cannibalize its legacy UPS and AC distribution, but it is building the replacements: centralized rectifiers, 800V busway, DC energy storage and rack-level DC/DC, while cooling remains a big opportunity either way. Nvidia targets 800V DC for MW-scale racks from 2027, though only 15-25% of data centers may adopt it by 2030, mostly as hybrids on an AC backbone, so AC isn't going away. x.comÂ
Ideal Power could re-rate sharply because its solid-state bidirectional switches let power flow both ways between the grid and facility-level energy storage, and it is the highest-conviction name of its size. The switches are at the same stage as Wolfspeed's without competing with them, and the latest earnings report was good. @hiteshkar adds that if qualified, it would be the most unique product on the market, ideal for behind-the-meter protection. x.com x.comÂ
On-site power management would help Vertiv tackle a major AI data-center bottleneck. Its planned acquisition of UtilityInnovation Group would add that expertise alongside its power and cooling equipment. x.comÂ
