Sivers Semiconductors is expensive because its valuation rests on a $1.2 billion opportunity pipeline, an unreliable KPI. At 15% conversion next year, it trades near 22x 2027 sales versus Lumentum's 14x and Coherent's and AAOI's 5x, and about 13x 2029 sales versus 3-9x for incumbents with contracted LTAs. The InP laser shortage is Lumentum's and Coherent's asset; Sivers gains access only in H2 2027 if all goes to plan and needs the shortage into 2028. It is a swing trade, not a conviction hold. … Show more

Sivers Semiconductors' AI optics rally prices in more than its photonics business has shown. About 75% of revenue is still wireless mmWave. Its 50-75mW CW lasers suit 400G and 800G but trail tier-1 rivals, making it a tier-2 spillover supplier like Applied Optoelectronics. Its small, old Glasgow fab has $50-150 million of potential laser revenue, with no sign of major expansion. Its multi-wavelength laser arrays for CPO are pre-revenue as Nvidia and Broadcom build their own. x.com 

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com  x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' $30M expansion of its Glasgow InP fab, targeting over 100M CW DFB lasers a year by Q4 2027, likely means hard dilution. As @PhotonCap notes, the plan shifts Sivers toward hybrid manufacturing, and its capacity target and customer ramps remain forward-looking rather than committed volumes. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' valuation is hard to justify even on its most ambitious targets for the next 1-3 years, given the margins it has and will have. Its most interesting angle is private companies such as Lightmatter apparently using its CW laser arrays, though that is not officially confirmed. Lumentum and Coherent, while not exact peers, are preferred. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' LiDAR design win is closer to generating revenue now that its customer has placed initial production orders. Shipments begin in Q4 2026; automotive and industrial programs target 2027 production. Sivers estimates $53M-$138M in lifetime revenue potential, not firm backlog; the initial order value is undisclosed and the program was announced in March. Repeat orders and shipment growth must convert potential into revenue; the market also wants profitability. x.com  x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' lasers look too low-powered to compete with Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics in co-packaged optics. Its 65 mW DFB chip is far below the 300-400 mW CPO needs, while Lumentum showed an 800 mW laser at OFC 26. Sivers is pushing DFB arrays with Ayar Labs, but high-power DFB designs, not arrays, should win adoption for the next 2-3 years. @aleabitoreddit counters that 65 mW is per channel. Sivers works as a trade but is very speculative as a mid- to long-term bet. … Show more

Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com 

Sivers is less exposed to tighter AI financing because its 700M SEK raise funds a buildout largely reliant on external foundries. It is qualifying with Ayar, Jabil, GlobalFoundries and O-Net for potential tier-one hyperscaler pluggable, CPO and NPO deployments. Higher rates may strain neoclouds needing billions for GPUs, but optical content and aggregate demand should still rise even if hyperscaler AI capex falls, especially as new players start qualification. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' results are likely to disappoint because it lacks production capacity. Optical results are a simple function of capacity: Lumentum and Coherent should post strong numbers as capacity comes online, but Sivers has no meaningful increment to add. It reports results only once a year, and each report card has sunk the stock. x.com  x.com  x.com