Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.com 

Intel looks expensive even against sales despite its earlier revenue recovery: at 10x sales versus roughly 5x for chipmakers, the screen puts fair value at $40.45-$51.48 against $104.70. This adds a sales-based valuation warning to the prior earnings concern; it is a levels-only comparison using reported figures, not fundamental diligence. x.com 

Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com  x.com 

Intel's $650 billion market cap already prices in at least two years of growth. At 20 times earnings it would need $33 billion of net income, which at a generous 25% margin means $132 billion of revenue, 2.25 times its expected 2026 revenue. That looks doubtful. x.com 

Intel's high valuation is hard to justify while its foundry turnaround remains unproven. At about 59x forward earnings, nearly three times TSMC's 19x, Intel has slower projected revenue growth; its foundry lost $2.09 billion in Q2 2026, while TSMC's Q3 operating margin was 58.7%. A politician's stock purchase alone does not make Intel a buy. x.com  x.com 

Intel shares now cost less than its CEO paid when he bought $10M of his own stock, a vote of confidence with shares more than 25% below all-time highs. x.com 

Intel's valuation remains stretched even on improving earnings: it is expected to earn $6B in net income in 2026, yet its forward P/E is still close to 100. Per Charlie Bilello, Intel now trades above 11x sales, its highest since 2000, versus under 2x a year ago, after losing $3.4B over the last year. x.com 

Intel's lack of real AI or foundry plans is showing in weak Q4 guidance. It forecasts $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue versus $17.08 billion consensus and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 versus $0.44, despite Q3 EPS of $0.52 and revenue of $16.51 billion beating expectations. x.com 

Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.com 

Intel's solid miss fits a longstanding negative view of the stock. ZeroHedge reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $0.25 versus $0.45 expected and revenue guidance of $15 billion to $16 billion versus $17.29 billion expected. x.com