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Schulz Duggan

AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing

26 Aug, 12:51Latest

Photronics' real story is node migration showing up in its mask mix, not its FX-flattered EPS beat. High-end IC masks, 28nm and smaller, rose 28% to $68.5M while mainstream masks fell 9%, lifting high-end to a record 44% of IC revenue; it is the only high-end-capable commercial mask maker in the US. Heavier capex in Allen, Texas and Korea will hit margins first as depreciation. If high-end holds above 44% next quarter, the shift is a trend; a drop toward the high 30s would make it catch-up. x.com

PLAB

Venu

Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis

12 Apr

PLAB

Photronics offers direct leverage to AI semiconductor demand because it makes photomasks, the master templates that print circuits on every chip; no semiconductor can be built without one. The $2.65B company has a 26-year base on the chart, weeks of accumulation and accelerating earnings. x.com

Jason's Chips

Buy-Side AI & Semiconductor Investor

31 Mar

SMHN.DE

SUSS MicroTec is mispriced, with near 100% revenue exposure to leading-edge chip equipment yet EV/revenue multiples a third to a fifth of US semicap majors. About 70% of revenue comes from advanced packaging tools such as temporary and hybrid bonders and 30% from front-end photomask tools; some are monopolies, others hold majority share or are call options. In a big semicap cycle, margins rising from 5% to 25% matter more than 20% to 40%. Its weak 2026 outlook matched sell-side expectations. … Show more

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

11 May

PLAB

Photronics looks overextended, with risks far outweighing rewards after a 170%+ surge to near its all-time high. It trades at 23x earnings on only 4-5% growth, insiders have been aggressively selling, and the chart shows clear bearish divergence. Semiconductor and display markets are highly cyclical, so a slowdown in downstream demand could trigger a sharp pullback. x.com

Temple 8 Research

AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research

11 Aug

MRK.DE

Merck KGaA's Electronics segment delivered what the long thesis predicted, as AI chips need more material per wafer and tighter process control at advanced nodes. Electronics grew 11.7% organically, Semiconductor Solutions 17%, and Merck raised 2026 EBITDA pre guidance to €5.9-6.3B. Its Electronics CEO said leading-edge AI customers stay capacity constrained through 2027. Optronics was flat, the stock sits near the €138 thesis price, and Bio-Techne could add about 5% to 2027 sales growth. x.com … Show more

Pegasus

Long/Short Equity Investor

19 Aug

ASML

ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com x.com … Show more

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