ASML's EUV R&D is starting to pay off through operating leverage. Q3 R&D fell as a share of sales, though one quarter is not a trend. Higher units, IBM sales and EUV/DUV prices put 2028 estimates well above the 2030 guide and ahead of consensus; shares look cheap at €1,530. Assuming 30% prepayment, liabilities imply €42-45bn of orders in 2026's first nine months, subject to invoicing lags. The proposed MATCH Act could restrict China sales; 2029-30 demand is less certain than 2028. x.com  x.com  … Show more

TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.com 

SUSS MicroTec is in a far stronger position with TSMC than Sono-Tek, as the established back-end spin-coating incumbent in CoWoS that is positioning for TSMC's CoPoS panel packaging with AltaSpray and inkjet. The CoPoS pilot line finishes in June 2026, with a volume ramp in 2028-29, when larger panels and higher aspect ratios could make spin coating insufficient and favor spray. At about 10x EV/gross profit and 25x EV/EBIT, SUSS looks more attractive than Sono-Tek at 6.6x and 37x. x.com 

SUSS MicroTec's 2026 is a transitional year with a more pessimistic forecast, but HBM demand should pick up significantly by 2027 at the latest, according to sources at major HBM manufacturers. Its 2025 results came in slightly better than expected. x.com 

Chip-equipment makers look cheap given supply-chain shortages and demand visible toward 2029-30. At Semicon West, no one raised demand concerns; suppliers' suppliers lacked capacity, while several high-quality names trade below the S&P multiple. Per Lynx's KC, customers are asking about delivery three to four years out. For Lam Research's report, bottlenecks, pricing and visibility beyond 2027 matter more than demand. x.com  x.com 

Lam Research's comments about 2027 supply constraints bode well for semicap subsystem suppliers Ultra Clean, MKS Instruments and Ichor, which have substantial cyclical torque. The three trade at 7-12x estimated 2027 EPS. x.com 

ASML's long case may gain some pricing power as Intel, Samsung, TSM and the memory boom broaden demand beyond its former customer concentration. But it has bungled packaging, where throughput matters more than critical dimension for viable economics; charging a new-machine price for wider field of view complicates the opportunity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

TSMC's AI growth still faces margin pressure from overseas fab expansion and a faster A14 ramp for mobile customers facing 2nm SoC challenges. 3Q gross margin of 66.4% missed expectations, and the 4Q guide is softer at 65-67%; margins are expected to remain largely flat through 2027-28 despite projected 39% revenue growth in 2027. Hold; target nudged to NT$2,999 at 20x 2027 earnings. x.com  x.com  x.com 

TSMC's strong AI demand is straining supply, while solid company fundamentals and attractive semiconductor valuations make an abrupt stop to its advance unlikely. TSMC's Wendell Huang expects 2026-28 capex to be significantly higher than in the previous three years to support customer growth; he says most capex is tied to long-term demand. x.com 

ASML's blowout results undercut the bearish AI case, and the chip selloff that followed is a sell-the-news valuation correction, not a demand problem. Revenue of €9.326 billion beat by 5%, EPS by 10%, gross margin hit 54%, full-year guidance rose 16% and 2026-2028 shipments were raised. Oversupply fears from heavy tool orders look overdone, since tools take a long time to reach production and capacity doesn't translate linearly into qualified chips. JPMorgan sees 2028 EPS possibly above €65. … Show more