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Semiconductor Market Commentary, Thru Project Mascot
ASML's long case may gain some pricing power as Intel, Samsung, TSM and the memory boom broaden demand beyond its former customer concentration. But it has bungled packaging, where throughput matters more than critical dimension for viable economics; charging a new-machine price for wider field of view complicates the opportunity. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
China's reported EUV prototype, flagged by @kyleichan, poses no threat to ASML: it is a Frankenstein research machine built on a Canon stage and an old EUV source likely stolen from Taiwan, unusable for high-volume production, and reverse engineering may take many years or never work. No full EUV machine shipped to China. Meanwhile a recent EUV source upgrade delivering much more power and throughput is driving a massive, highly economical upgrade cycle across all EUV machines. x.com x.com
Intel getting High-NA EUV working secures ASML's technological moat for the next decade, mattering more than the raised guidance that moved the stock. ASML confirmed High-NA has entered commercial production with lead customer Intel, removing the biggest technical overhang on whether its $350M+ machines work in high-volume manufacturing. Q2 net sales of €9.3 billion and EPS of €7.59 beat estimates with a 54% gross margin, and FY2026 revenue guidance rose to €43-45 billion from €34-39 billion. … Show more
ASML is getting paid more for each tool, moving beyond proving it can build enough of them. Q3 2026 brings pricing power and an order book reaching 2030; the house view has strengthened, with high conviction. x.com
ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com x.com … Show more
ASML's EUV R&D is starting to pay off through operating leverage. Q3 R&D fell as a share of sales, though one quarter is not a trend. Higher units, IBM sales and EUV/DUV prices put 2028 estimates well above the 2030 guide and ahead of consensus; shares look cheap at €1,530. Assuming 30% prepayment, liabilities imply €42-45bn of orders in 2026's first nine months, subject to invoicing lags. The proposed MATCH Act could restrict China sales; 2029-30 demand is less certain than 2028. x.com x.com … Show more
ASML's planned 2027-28 output cannot meet customer demand, supporting a Buy rating and €1,830 target. Long-term customer down payments rose from €3.6bn to €9.3bn; customers seek 2029-30 orders that ASML has not accepted. Critical-tool price rises begin in 2027, with full effect in 2028, but are not meant to recur annually. Q3 EPS excluding a €509.7m investment gain still beat consensus. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
ASML's growth path loses momentum on news that TSMC can make some chips without ASML's machines. x.com
ASML looks undervalued, a rare sight for this company, because its long-term AI opportunity is much bigger than the market is pricing in. AI is driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips, customers are accelerating capacity expansion, and ASML sits right in the middle of that buildout. Q2 revenue reached €9.3B with €2.9B in net income, and management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43B-€45B. x.com x.com
ASML cannot make enough EUV machines to meet demand, which it says will outrun supply through 2028. Its 2026 sales guide rose from €34-39 billion to €44-45 billion, and gross margin hit 57.5%. The combination of an EUV monopoly, demand outrunning supply and growing pricing power is rare. x.com
ASML lacks the growth it needs, even though @mzuhair123 makes a good case that High-NA going mainstream by decade-end will strengthen its Dutch hegemony. x.com
ASML's reported inability to make enough machines for the next two years is a buy signal for the whole AI stack. Its stock still sold off despite that shortage. x.com
