ASML cannot make enough EUV machines to meet demand, which it says will outrun supply through 2028. Its 2026 sales guide rose from €34-39 billion to €44-45 billion, and gross margin hit 57.5%. The combination of an EUV monopoly, demand outrunning supply and growing pricing power is rare. x.com 

ASML's EUV R&D is starting to pay off through operating leverage. Q3 R&D fell as a share of sales, though one quarter is not a trend. Higher units, IBM sales and EUV/DUV prices put 2028 estimates well above the 2030 guide and ahead of consensus; shares look cheap at €1,530. Assuming 30% prepayment, liabilities imply €42-45bn of orders in 2026's first nine months, subject to invoicing lags. The proposed MATCH Act could restrict China sales; 2029-30 demand is less certain than 2028. x.com  x.com  … Show more

ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com  x.com  … Show more

High-NA EUV adoption, supposedly ASML's weak spot, now has all three leading-edge buyers on board, shrinking adoption uncertainty. Intel already runs High-NA in high-volume manufacturing, Samsung takes it for DRAM in 2028, and TSMC just formed a joint initiative with ASML on 12-inch photomasks for High-NA. The ramp stays back-loaded: TSMC won't run it in volume until 2030, and the mask work targets a 2031 pilot line and 2033 production readiness. x.com 

ASML's long case may gain some pricing power as Intel, Samsung, TSM and the memory boom broaden demand beyond its former customer concentration. But it has bungled packaging, where throughput matters more than critical dimension for viable economics; charging a new-machine price for wider field of view complicates the opportunity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

ASML faces moat erosion now that China has a homegrown alternative to its machines. The Information reports a state-backed Shanghai company has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools. Chinese fabs stockpiling older DUV tools had become a major revenue driver, with China at 36% of sales in 2024 and 29% last year. Output is tiny, about five machines this year and maybe twenty next. But once a second supplier exists, the question shifts from "no alternative" to "for how long." x.com 

ASML's planned 2027-28 output cannot meet customer demand, supporting a Buy rating and €1,830 target. Long-term customer down payments rose from €3.6bn to €9.3bn; customers seek 2029-30 orders that ASML has not accepted. Critical-tool price rises begin in 2027, with full effect in 2028, but are not meant to recur annually. Q3 EPS excluding a €509.7m investment gain still beat consensus. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

ASML wins from the HBM race, because Elon Musk plans to use 50-60+ EUV tools at TeraFab, mainly to make HBM-grade DRAM. Chinese commodity memory makers like CXMT and YMTC use DUV, not EUV, so their push into the market doesn't dent ASML's position. x.com 

ASML's growth path loses momentum on news that TSMC can make some chips without ASML's machines. x.com 

ASML is getting paid more for each tool, moving beyond proving it can build enough of them. Q3 2026 brings pricing power and an order book reaching 2030; the house view has strengthened, with high conviction. x.com