ASML cannot make enough EUV machines to meet demand, which it says will outrun supply through 2028. Its 2026 sales guide rose from €34-39 billion to €44-45 billion, and gross margin hit 57.5%. The combination of an EUV monopoly, demand outrunning supply and growing pricing power is rare. x.com 

ASML is a direct winner of the memory supercycle, because Micron, Samsung and SK hynix need its EUV tools to scale advanced memory and HBM, with effectively no alternative. Micron's capex rises from $27B in FY26 to an estimated $50B in FY27, per Goldman, and the tool portion flows to ASML. Management says it is close to securing all EUV orders needed for 2027, with many booked for 2028. Consensus sees about 20% annual revenue growth and a record 36% operating margin by 2027. x.com 

ASML faces moat erosion now that China has a homegrown alternative to its machines. The Information reports a state-backed Shanghai company has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools. Chinese fabs stockpiling older DUV tools had become a major revenue driver, with China at 36% of sales in 2024 and 29% last year. Output is tiny, about five machines this year and maybe twenty next. But once a second supplier exists, the question shifts from "no alternative" to "for how long." x.com 

ASML's EUV R&D is starting to pay off through operating leverage. Q3 R&D fell as a share of sales, though one quarter is not a trend. Higher units, IBM sales and EUV/DUV prices put 2028 estimates well above the 2030 guide and ahead of consensus; shares look cheap at €1,530. Assuming 30% prepayment, liabilities imply €42-45bn of orders in 2026's first nine months, subject to invoicing lags. The proposed MATCH Act could restrict China sales; 2029-30 demand is less certain than 2028. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Intel getting High-NA EUV working secures ASML's technological moat for the next decade, mattering more than the raised guidance that moved the stock. ASML confirmed High-NA has entered commercial production with lead customer Intel, removing the biggest technical overhang on whether its $350M+ machines work in high-volume manufacturing. Q2 net sales of €9.3 billion and EPS of €7.59 beat estimates with a 54% gross margin, and FY2026 revenue guidance rose to €43-45 billion from €34-39 billion. … Show more

ASML could break down from here on the China news. x.com 

ASML stands to benefit from Samsung's restarted memory megafab buildout, having reportedly received orders for around 20 EUV systems for Samsung's P5 fab plus a larger package of DUV tools. The orders tie to 1c DRAM and HBM4 capacity expansion. Samsung plans P5 and an almost identical P5 Fab 2 as a twin-fab model, with Korean reports pointing to about 160 trillion won in total investment and construction contracts suggesting the project is moving into real execution. x.com 

ASML's EUV moat is hard to replicate because making EUV light is only one part of a production tool: sustained fab uptime matters, and Zeiss optics are the harder moat. Langdao Silex showed a Chinese light source with 90% local components but disclosed no power figure. ASML's production sources run at about 600W; its February demo reached 1,000W with a path to 1,500W. Langdao staff put mass production three to five years away. x.com 

ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com  x.com  … Show more

High-NA EUV adoption, supposedly ASML's weak spot, now has all three leading-edge buyers on board, shrinking adoption uncertainty. Intel already runs High-NA in high-volume manufacturing, Samsung takes it for DRAM in 2028, and TSMC just formed a joint initiative with ASML on 12-inch photomasks for High-NA. The ramp stays back-loaded: TSMC won't run it in volume until 2030, and the mask work targets a 2031 pilot line and 2033 production readiness. x.com