More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.com 

Prepaid contracts and demand-paced fabs weaken a broad 2028 memory-glut case. SK hynix says over half its 2027-28 capacity is signed with deposits; 'sold out through 2029' includes negotiations. Samsung targets 60-70% contracted capacity. Micron's three projects begin output in 2H28; tooling follows demand. Reuters says CXMT's 20-30%-yield HBM3E may ship this year to export-restricted Chinese buyers, but performs like older HBM3. Commodity DRAM risks 2028-29 oversupply; NAND could ease in 2H27. … Show more

ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com  x.com  … Show more

ASML's upgrades and parts capture the chip shortage before its long-lead-time systems do. Q3 installed-base revenue reached €3.3B versus ~€2.9B guided, a ~€0.4B beat after Q2's ~€0.3B beat. System prices are locked in years ahead; upgrades add wafers per hour to tools already running while chipmakers wait for new machines into 2028. The Elec reportedly says Samsung and SK hynix accepted a 10% parts increase from January, though that report was unconfirmed. x.com 

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix can invest heavily and still generate free cash flow that makes memory stocks look strikingly cheap. In 2027, they will spend $150B combined on capex yet generate $500-600B of free cash flow, against just $1.8T of combined enterprise value, or less than 3.5x 2027 FCF. Long memory. x.com 

ASML could break down from here on the China news. x.com 

ASML is a direct winner of the memory supercycle, because Micron, Samsung and SK hynix need its EUV tools to scale advanced memory and HBM, with effectively no alternative. Micron's capex rises from $27B in FY26 to an estimated $50B in FY27, per Goldman, and the tool portion flows to ASML. Management says it is close to securing all EUV orders needed for 2027, with many booked for 2028. Consensus sees about 20% annual revenue growth and a record 36% operating margin by 2027. x.com 

AI's physical buildout looks set to last to 2030 and beyond because financing, memory supply and hyperscaler spending still point to sustained demand. Nebius has $3.5B in financing, IREN $2.4B at 9% and SPCX $40B for GPU equipment. SK hynix expects shortages through at least 2030 and Samsung says HBM4 is sold out; memory companies are making money with no sign of slowing. Google expects 2027 capex to rise significantly. Pullbacks can happen; be cautious and buy quality. x.com 

ASML's growth path loses momentum on news that TSMC can make some chips without ASML's machines. x.com 

ASML wins from the HBM race, because Elon Musk plans to use 50-60+ EUV tools at TeraFab, mainly to make HBM-grade DRAM. Chinese commodity memory makers like CXMT and YMTC use DUV, not EUV, so their push into the market doesn't dent ASML's position. x.com