Intel getting High-NA EUV working secures ASML's technological moat for the next decade, mattering more than the raised guidance that moved the stock. ASML confirmed High-NA has entered commercial production with lead customer Intel, removing the biggest technical overhang on whether its $350M+ machines work in high-volume manufacturing. Q2 net sales of €9.3 billion and EPS of €7.59 beat estimates with a 54% gross margin, and FY2026 revenue guidance rose to €43-45 billion from €34-39 billion. … Show more

TSMC's conservative delay in high-NA adoption will be its downfall as Intel's stitching advances sooner. TSMC's larger-mask alternative requires changing the entire stage and is projected for production by 2033; Intel's stitching is substantially derisked and could be ready for volume production in 2027 at the earliest. TSMC's CoWoS and CoPoS shortcomings add to the concern. x.com 

ASML could break down from here on the China news. x.com 

ASML cannot make enough EUV machines to meet demand, which it says will outrun supply through 2028. Its 2026 sales guide rose from €34-39 billion to €44-45 billion, and gross margin hit 57.5%. The combination of an EUV monopoly, demand outrunning supply and growing pricing power is rare. x.com 

ASML's EUV R&D is starting to pay off through operating leverage. Q3 R&D fell as a share of sales, though one quarter is not a trend. Higher units, IBM sales and EUV/DUV prices put 2028 estimates well above the 2030 guide and ahead of consensus; shares look cheap at €1,530. Assuming 30% prepayment, liabilities imply €42-45bn of orders in 2026's first nine months, subject to invoicing lags. The proposed MATCH Act could restrict China sales; 2029-30 demand is less certain than 2028. x.com  x.com  … Show more

ASML has yet to fall despite losing its biggest customer, TSMC, until 2029, a customer responsible for 70% of its revenue. That disconnect reflects the current state of the chip bubble. x.com 

ASML wins from the HBM race, because Elon Musk plans to use 50-60+ EUV tools at TeraFab, mainly to make HBM-grade DRAM. Chinese commodity memory makers like CXMT and YMTC use DUV, not EUV, so their push into the market doesn't dent ASML's position. x.com 

Requests for ASML lithography-tool slots as far out as 2030 signal years of locked-in downstream AI infrastructure spending plans. ASML's machines come before the chips, making those customer requests a clearer early demand signal than chip headlines. x.com 

ASML faces moat erosion now that China has a homegrown alternative to its machines. The Information reports a state-backed Shanghai company has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools. Chinese fabs stockpiling older DUV tools had become a major revenue driver, with China at 36% of sales in 2024 and 29% last year. Output is tiny, about five machines this year and maybe twenty next. But once a second supplier exists, the question shifts from "no alternative" to "for how long." x.com 

ASML stands to benefit from Samsung's restarted memory megafab buildout, having reportedly received orders for around 20 EUV systems for Samsung's P5 fab plus a larger package of DUV tools. The orders tie to 1c DRAM and HBM4 capacity expansion. Samsung plans P5 and an almost identical P5 Fab 2 as a twin-fab model, with Korean reports pointing to about 160 trillion won in total investment and construction contracts suggesting the project is moving into real execution. x.com