Figma's fair value is a $3-5bn market cap, or under $9 a share. That valuation target answers @DivinelyLevered's question on what fair value underpins the short, set apart from the AI-cannibalization angle. x.com
Masa’s Son
Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor
Figma is still expensive and would only look attractive at Salesforce, Workday or Atlassian multiples. A post the author replies to argues the stock's failure to jump on strong numbers shows how bad sentiment is. x.com
Anthropic's Claude Design, which makes prototypes, slides and one-pagers by talking to Claude, spells trouble for Figma. The launch drew 20 million views in seven hours, and Claude keeps crushing these product releases. x.com
Figma is eating AI's lunch rather than being destroyed by it, yet trades at only about 10x sales in the $20s. Q1 revenue of $333M beat, growth accelerated to 46% for a second straight quarter, net dollar retention hit 139%, its highest in two years, paid customers rose 54% and guidance was raised by $55M. The market is also ignoring that Figma is itself an AI tool. The math points to $60 a share, a $30-32B market cap or even $50B. x.com x.com
Figma is the company most likely to be wiped out by AI, since AI image generation replaces the need for its design tools. x.com
Figma faces a long-term competitive threat because its users have already shown they will switch: every Figma user left the Adobe suite once a better option emerged. If a genuinely better suite at a similar price came along, from Anthropic for example, they could switch again, enterprise layer included. A post the author replies to argues Figma's moat is its governance layer and system of record, citing 46% growth and 139% net dollar retention. A short-term software rebound remains possible. … Show more
Figma is a $40 stock trading at $23, a deep discount to its value. x.com
Anthropic's launch of Claude Design threatens Figma's core business. The tool lets users make prototypes, slides and one-pagers by talking to Claude, and the announcement drew 43 million views in 22 hours. Figma is dead. x.com
Anthropic's Claude Design just took Figma's job. The new tool makes prototypes, slides and one-pagers by talking to Claude, per Anthropic. x.com
Figma is monetizing AI tokens rather than being eaten by them, and could out-execute Adobe and gain share before AI reaches it. Q1 revenue rose 46% to $333M with 139% net dollar retention. About 60% of $100K+ customers use Figma Make weekly, and after AI credit limits went live, 75% of users who had exceeded them kept using credits in April, with over 95% still active. With $1.4B of ARR against Adobe's $19B in digital media, Figma has room to take share and use AI to deepen stickiness. x.com … Show more
Figma and Adobe face pressure from Anthropic's reported plan to launch an AI design tool, possibly alongside Claude Opus 4.7 as soon as this week. The tool reportedly turns natural-language prompts into presentations, websites, landing pages and products, work that overlaps with their design software. x.com